Final Election Predictions, Featuring Weekend Monkey

JoshuaPundit:

Well this is where the pedal hits the metal as they say. It's time for me to make my final election predictions, along with the able assistance of Joshua Pundit's political guru, ace handicapper and former Democrat presidential candidate Weekend Monkey.

RM: Hello Monkey, and thanks for joining us.

WM: Your pleasure, I'm sure Rob. Howdy Doody, primates!

RM: @##!#. Always the inflated ego...

WM: Hee hee hee! Lemme tell ya, I'm feeling good about tomorrow!

RM: Let me guess. I know you've been campaigning for Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts... I take it you favor her chances tomorrow.

WM: Oh, you betcha Rob. And that translates into a lot of shekels for yours truly in election action, plus a high level staff position in DC when she gets in.

RM: I should have known. Anyway, you want to do the Senate first or the presidential race?

WM: Let's start at the top and work down.

RM: OK, fire away.

WM: It's really too close to call, but I see it leaning towards President Obama narrowly winning a second term..probably after some controversy among the primates:

It's really pretty simple. I see Romney the Robot narrowly getting frozen out of Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And I mean narrowly. If even one state changes, it could go the other way. Let's call it 5-3 Obama.

Ohio is gonna be the poop storm, with a lotta weirdness in Cuyoga and Mahoning Counties that could leave us hanging on the branch for a long time, but in the end it's gonna come down to Ohio. If that goes Obama's way, he wins.Otherwise, Romney the Robot gets in.

RM: So you don't see Romney taking either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin?

WM: Y'know, anything's possible, But if I gotta make a call, I say Obama takes it overall. Especially Ohio, because a lot of the primates have jobs still, unemployment's relatively low, you got the unions and the Cleavland Machine. And they're all organized because of Governor Kasich trying to pull a Scott Walker on the public employee unions and getting his pee pee slapped. (The RNC’s Reince Priebus, from Wisconsin, says the polls were showing Walker down by 7 in the recall election and he won in a cake walk.  He also said that the GOPS ground game for Wisconsin is double what it was in 2004 and 2008… so the Monkey maybe off here!).

RM: Speaking of governors, what did you think of Chris Christie cozying up to Obama and dissing Romney, essentially telling him he wasn't welcome in Jersey to tour the storm areas?

WM: Ah hee hee hee! I got a real laugh outta that! Look, it's simple. Lardass is ticked off because he didn't run, he's looking at 2016 and the only way that opens up for him is if Romney the Robot loses. Simple as that.

RM: Makes sense. I never liked him anyway. The House?

WM: I say it stays ReThug, with maybe 3-5 seats changing hands.

RM: The Senate?

WM: Hee hee! Worst case, my Democrats will probably lose Virginia, North Dakota, Nebraska, Montana. They'll make pickups in Massachusetts and Maine, where the indy guy King will caucus with us Donkeys.Maybe another pickup in Indiana, depending on turnout.And we'll keep Florida.Probably Missouri too.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are wild cards. If they go Democrat like I think they will, we get those too. They might end up splitting, one apiece.

The ReThugs make pickups in Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Nebraska. They'll keep Arizona and Nevada, maybe Indiana.They lose Massachusetts and Maine. They might get either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, depending.

Bottom line? Including two indies, my Democrats end up with 49 seats maybe 50-51 if we get Indiana and either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The ReThugs end up with 49, 48 if they lose Indiana.To get control of the senate, they'd have to hang on to Indiana somehow and get both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, or maybe Missouri which I don't see happening at all.

RM: You predicted a divided Senate before.

WM: Yup. It could shake out that way. OK, whaddya got?

RM: I see Romney winning.

WM: Cheez, what a surprise!

RM: Hey now...

WM: Alright, alright.

RM: Here's how I see it, but just like with your map, mine is subject to some changes..it really is a pretty close race to predict.

With the economy the way it is, and the other issues of Obama's presidency, I see Romney taking Virginia, Florida, Colorado and North Carolina pretty decisively. I also think he's going to take two of the Big Four in the Midwest, most likely Ohio and Wisconsin, although the last polls I saw that meant anything show Pennsylvania and Michigan tied up. I think there's a very good chance that Ohio and Pennsylvania might switch columns, with Romney taking the Keystone State and Obama getting Ohio by a narrow margin because of the factors you mentioned.Especially with Obama's EPA already salivating publicly at crippling coal for good.

WM: You see Romney taking Iowa and New Hampshire?

RM: Yeah, but with this scenario if he loses them both he still wins.

WM: Yeah, I can see that.You better hope he takes Colorado then,,,,

RM: I think he will. For what it's worth I agree with you Monkey, it's going to come down to the Big Four in the Midwest.Obama has to take both Pennsylvania and Ohio to win.
WM: You see the Elephants keeping the House?

RM: Of course, Monkey. With a maximum loss of 3-5 seats. Which means that even if you're right and Obama does get re-elected, Darrel Issa still has subpoena powers and Obama might wish he lost tomorrow in a couple of years.

WM: Ouchie! You got a point there!

RM: Here's how I see the Senate. OK, the Dems lose Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Nebraska. I personally think there's an excellent chance of one or two more GOP pickups in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Maybe Florida if Romney wins decisively enough. I think Tammy Baldwin's lunatic fringe lefty ideas don't play well in the Badger State anywhere outside Madison and Dane County, and there's also the Catholic vote to consider in both PA and Wisconsin. And with Paul Ryan on the ticket, Scott Walker surviving the recall and Wisconsin being RNC head Preibus' home state, I think it's looking pretty good for Romney and for Tommy Thompson.The GOP hangs on to Arizona and Nevada.

The Republicans probably lose Massachusetts and definitely lose Maine. And probably one of either Missouri or Indiana, although I think Mourdock has a shot at surviving in Indiana. So that puts us at between 49 and 52 seats for the GOP, depending on what happens in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri and Indiana.

I pretty much see the Democrats' scenario the same way you do, including the two indies. I'd like to think the people of Massachusetts have more brains than to put someone like Elizabeth Warren in the Senate -

WM: HEY!

RM: Nothing personal Monkey.

WM: Besides, it is Massachusetts....

RM: You got that right. Anyway, I also see a split senate as a real possibility. So there it is...

WM: I gotta tell you something Rob...you know that video of that little primate crying and saying she was tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney? I feel the same way. I wanna get this thing over with.

RM: Me too Monkey. I think a lot of people feel that way. Two years for a political campaign is just to damned long, and I'll be relieved when it's over and done with. You ever think of running for something again?

WM: You know me Rob. I'm a political animal and I see my opportunities and take 'em. Hee hee!

RM: Spoken like a Democrat, Monkey. Thanks for swinging by.

WM: See ya later Rob. Smell Ya later, Primates.

Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru. He can be reached at wendmonkey@yahoo.com

Related:

Listening to the pundits, most say it is too close to call and it could go one of two ways… a landslide for Romney or a squeaker to the end, late into the night.  Dick Morris, Charles Krauthammer, Rush Limbaugh, and Karl Rove predict that it will be a Romney-Ryan win.  Dick Morris feels it will be a landslide for Romney because he claims pollsters are oversampling Democrats and says a poll that claims Obama is up 3, really means Romney is winning by 4. Claiming that "Ohio is overrated... Romney can lose the state and still win the election."

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Technorati Tags: Election 2012,2012 Election,elections,Mitt Romney in 2012,Romney-Ryan,Chris Christy,Charles Krauthammer,Reince Priebus,swing states,battle ground states,Dick Morris,pols,Election 2012 predictions,Karl Rove,Rush Limbaugh,Obama vs. Romney,Romney vs. Obama

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Photo:  Real Clear Politics

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the 2012 primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, at the end of the primary stream. drafting their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, or ???

But as sure as Jeb Bush will be proposed, so will Sarah Palin. She is now and always has been the singular Reaganesque super-star voice in the original Tea Party phenomenon; the only one who can bring it to the mainstream. Her absence from the primary race has left a vacuum and no substitute has been found. Every other possible or potential leadership hopeful has risen and receded in this already seemingly long Republican primary season. 

All reports from the CPAC conference, the former Alaska governor received far and away the most spirited and enthusiastic reception at the convention of about 10,000 conservative activists. She drew the audience to its feet more than a dozen times during her keynote address on Saturday. “The cheers for Palin were so loud that they drowned out her remarks again and again,” he writes. “Conference organizers had to set up three overflow rooms to accommodate the throngs of supporters eager to hear her words.”

Sarah Palin bated clean-up at CPAC and hit a home run!  Her appearance reminded CPAC’s attendees how much they missed her. Palin was/is the conservative super-star.  She brought the red meat to CPAC and crowd loved it… as they loved her!  Palin repeatedly said the door was open for a conservative victory, but the door that seemed to be open the widest was the one to her political future as the leader of the conservative movement and as heiress to the Reagan legacy.  Sarah once again proved her conservative relevancy… It was her party on Saturday, and it could be for the foreseeable future. The only questions remains, could that include a place for here on the party ticket in a brokered primary?

Remember… Palin has already been there once for a dress rehearsal.

Photo: McCain Election Album 2008

Many have been adamant that the outcome of a brokered convention is extremely unlikely. For it to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa. But has anyone else noticed how often they ask Mitt Romney about this possibility?

It is looking more and more like the the GOP fight could eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario. (However, there are signs that the Romney and Paul camps may have already brokered a deal.)

Something else to remember, the GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned all to well to her sorrow in 2008.

Additionally and perhaps even more importantly, demographic and geographic splits are beginning to surface in the GOP that resemble the splits in the Democratic Party in 2008. That year, Hillary Clinton laid claim to working-class whites and Latino voters, while Barack Obama laid claim to college-educated whites and African-Americans. This divide continued throughout the primary, right up to the last day of voting.

The GOP split is still speculative at this point. But to see the possibility, examine the map of U.S. counties and how they have voted so far. Blue counties backed Romney, red backed Gingrich, green are for Santorum, while white have gone for some other candidate (or not yet voted).

Map:  Real Clear Politics

Romney has done well in New Hampshire and south Florida; the latter is basically the North transplanted to the South. This suggests continued strength in the Northeast. He’s also done well in the Mountain West: Nevada was in his camp, as was a large portion of the Western Slope of Colorado. Note also the handful of counties in southern Colorado that went for Romney; they are heavily Mexican-American, and Romney has run well with Latino voters in the GOP contests thus far.

Next, Gingrich. There is continued resistance to Mitt Romney in the GOP among evangelicals. These voters are concentrated largely, but not exclusively, in the South. And as we see, the former House speaker ran well in South Carolina as well as in northern Florida, and is expected to do well in Georgia. This caused many to conclude that Gingrich was on the verge of emerging as the definitive not-Romney.

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest. Santorum is getting a bit of boost from the Catholic birth control mandate issue, but some aren’t so sure about his fiscal conservatism.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.

We will find out how viable this path is in the next few weeks. In the lead-up to Super Tuesday, we’ll probably see Romney win Arizona, Michigan and Maine. Arizona and Maine are in his demographic wheelhouse, while he is a native Michigander and his father was governor of the state (Although in a recent survey 67% of the people living in Michigan were not born or did not live in Michigan when George Romney was Governor). Washington is a coastal state, where Romney’s strength hasn’t been tested, so it is up in the air.

Super Tuesday will likely be tougher for him. Four of the five largest states -- Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia -- are Southern (or in Oklahoma's case, culturally Southern). Romney will likely win Virginia by default, but he will probably fare poorly in the remaining three. If Gingrich can stay in the race and maintain his strength in the South, he will likely win them.

On the other hand, Romney will probably do well in Massachusetts, Idaho and Vermont. Santorum seems well-positioned to win North Dakota. But let us remember, Santorum is fourth in delegates, behind Ron Paul.

So the viability of a three-way split probably comes down to Ohio, which has a fair number of evangelicals, though not to the degree that Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia do. Santorum has some strengths he can draw on in the Buckeye State, as his blue-collar message could play well even among Republicans there. If he wins, it means that we probably do have a deeply divided GOP, with Gingrich taking the anti-Romney vote in the South, and Santorum taking the anti-Romney vote in the Midwest.

The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race. There is also now word that Gingrich’s financial supporter, Adelson, has pulled out.  Most feel he will stay in the race, but that his star has faded.

Alternatively, Santorum’s support could turn out to be confined to caucus states and/or states where Romney failed to spend money. Remember, Colorado and Minnesota are small state caucuses, virtually ignored by the candidates. Santorum’s win in Minnesota was large enough, however, that it could indicate broader support among the general electorate (as was his showing in eastern Colorado). This might allow Gingrich to step in, or Romney to wrap up the nomination. But Santorum says he has a plan to beat Mitt in Michigan.

But in the event this scenario does unfold through Super Tuesday, we would then begin a long slog. But unlike 2008, where Obama’s states were frontloaded and allowed him to gain an air of inevitability early on, here the states are spread out. The remainder of March contains Northern caucuses in Wyoming and Kansas. There are Southern states: Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. At the same time, areas with heavily Latino population such as Puerto Rico, and states with relatively liberal Republican parties (Illinois) will cast their ballots. The fact that these contests award their delegates proportionately will prevent any candidate from breaking out.

In April, Gingrich would have a great chance in Texas, Maryland and Delaware (increasingly de facto Southern states in the GOP primary electorate), while Romney would receive large delegate hauls in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York. Santorum would have primaries in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the end, we could end up in California in early June with no clear nominee. While that state is nominally winner-take-all for a whopping 172 delegates, in fact it allocates the overwhelming majority of those delegates by Congressional District. Who is voting in a Republican primary in Nancy Pelosi’s or Maxine Waters’ district? I honestly have no idea, but if they’re different from the voters in the Latino central valley districts, and if they’re different than the voters in Orange County, and if they’re different from the voters in the Sierra districts, we really could have a situation where the state doesn’t produce a winner for the GOP.

If this occurs, and Ron Paul wins around 100 delegates along the way, we have a situation where no candidate has more than 900 delegates, and three have more than 400. In that situation, no one would be able to lay claim to the mantle of presumptive nominee. The convention would eventually deadlock, and an outside candidate could emerge.

The Bush family secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. But at CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee.  (Cardenas is already walking back his comments and his speech is disappearing from the Internet… but the cat is out of the bag.) It made Drudge this past weekend.

This would not be without its difficulties. We’ve seen the problem with sudden, late entrants before. The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.

And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s. One wing of the party might not be satisfied. Chris Christie’s name is frequently mentioned, but he believes in climate change and favors civil unions. How will the religious right react when that is in the spotlight? Mitch Daniels may bore Tea Partiers looking for a fighter, and his past as Bush’s budget director is a black mark waiting to be exploited by his opponent. Jeb Bush is a Bush. And so forth. And then there are the the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives… a ticket of the Western states, a Palin/Perry ticket ticket from Alaska and Texas. Now wouldn’t that be interested?

Conservatism is at the shore of a new awakening but is afraid to cross the river. It goes back to Gov. Rick Perry’s Texas primary race. From Quigley’s Pundits Blog of Jan. 21, 2010: “The Austin Statesman reported that former President George H.W. Bush will endorse U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor in her race against Rick Perry. Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Margaret Spellings and Karen Hughes [W.’s agent] also support Hutchison … But Sarah Palin supports Rick Perry and will appear with him at a rally on Super Bowl Sunday. Does one Sarah Palin equal a Bush, a Rove, a Spellings and a Hughes? In Texas, I believe it does.”  …Bernie Quigley

Perry won in a landslide. But why would the Bush establishment pull out all the stops to support Hutchison, who was sure to lose? Because they saw a new conservative movement building with Perry and Palin and were determined early on to stamp it out. They still are.
Bush/Christie or Christie/Bush as “establishment” representation is bound to bring muffled chuckles (“Hey Abbott!!!”) and Obama would win in a landslide. But Bush/Christie vs. Sarah Palin/Rick Perry positions coming head to head at the Republican Convention would pit the storied worlds of Dexter and Paulie Walnuts; the most notoriously corrupt, burned-out, busted-up, used-up, dangerous, underwater and broke Eastern states, against the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives like Palin of the Western states, Texas and Alaska. Now that would be interesting.

The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.  A Jeb Bush/Christy fight against Palin/Perry with maybe even a Romney/Santorum or Romney/Rand Paul option still sitting out there… or a Palin/Santorum option?  Can you see it? I am beginning to!

h/t to Real Clear Politics and The Hill’s Pundit’s Blog

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Iowa GOP Debate and Straw Poll…

Updates: Straw Poll Winner Results and More Updates below: 

1st Official Casualty of Straw Poll: Pawlenty Out

Who won the Republican Presidential Debate?

Who won the Iowa GOP debate?  That would depend on who you talk to and which poll you are looking at.  Fox’s online National poll showed Ron Paul as the winner.  Several polls showed Mitt Romney as the winner and I even heard that one showed Newt Gingrich, who was pretty much counted out before last Thursday’s debate, as the winner.

Below is my ‘Quick Take’ on Thursday night’s debate written Immediately after the debate and wrap up:

Romney appeared and sounded the most presidential.  He didn't allow himself to be pulled into the weeds like Pawlenty and Bachmann, and he gave his 7 point plan simply and right up front without being asked directly for it.  He is not my first choice but he did well in this debate!

I generally agreed with Frank Luntz and Joe Trippi's analysis given on Hannity's special right after the debate.  I thought the same before Hannity had them on.

Gingrich won the battle (against the media) and helped himself. (Shame on Chris Wallace, who I generally like, for the ‘gotcha’ questions’).  Romney won this round of the war.  Huntsman is out  (sounded unprepared and like he was a Democrat part of the time). Bachmann held her own and came out looking like a fighter. Pawlenty, although he has a good plan hurt himself, at least somewhat, in this debate. Santorum, Cain and Paul did fine.  Santorum and Paul got into a back and forth but made it about their points and issues, so it didn't come across as petty as Pawlenty and Bachmann's back and forth.  Cain stood strong and seemed more informed on his weaker areas.

After watching the debate, there is definitely room for Palin, Perry and a few others who are still debating their entry into this field.  Their entering the race would change the dynamics and probably knock out a few of the present weaker contenders.... sooner.  M~

More on the debate below…

Saturday 8.13.11 is the Ames Iowa Straw Poll…

So, what is the Ames Iowa Straw Poll?

This is actually a bit more complicated than you would think, but the short answer is that it is a straw poll, held by the Iowa Republican Party as a part of a fundraising dinner, in Ames, Iowa. Ames -- the home of Iowa State University (go Cyclones!) -- is located in Story County, which sits in the dead center of the state. This marks it as a symbolic location, the ideal place to officially kick off six months of state-wide political festivities. It will be held Saturday, August 13th.  Part of the festivities of this Iowa State Fair are the candidates coming to meet, greet and eat with you up close and personal!  And that includes Sarah Palin, who has not yet thrown her hat in the ring, but rolled into Ames in her bus on Friday and took part in the festivities with her family. She also appeared on Hannity’s special from Ames on Friday night along with several of the GOP candidates from Thursday’s debate, Rep Steve King and political analyst Joe Trippi.  

The Ames Straw Poll has been conducted every year there hasn't been an incumbent GOP president since 1979. That makes it sound like a more impressive tradition than it actually is -- there have only ever been five Ames Straw Polls.

In a larger sense, the Ames Straw Poll serves a heroic purpose in our American lives. It gives the media something to fixate on in the critical month of August, when reporters often bellyache about there being "nothing to write about" because all the powerful men and women they have access to have left Washington, leaving everyone with a slow news month. Left to their own devices, the media can mess things up royally.

This year they should be covering the town halls that most of the Congressmen and Senators have been holding back in their home areas and hopefully they will have Boehner to cover as he calls, at least the republicans, back to Washington to deal with the problems and debt. Who knows… some Dems might return and Harry Reid might even be shamed into calling the Senate back. (Actually according to New Gingrich, 15 blue-dog democrats have signed a letter saying they feel Congress should reconvene to deal with the problems at hand.) That way when Obama returns from his Martha’s Vineyard vacation he might have some bills to sign??? or veto??? And then there is Glenn Beck’s Restoring Courage Event in Israel later in the month to cover… but I guess I am dreaming?!?

800 reporters will be credentialed to cover this straw poll, a new record.

Who is participating in this year's poll?

1. Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann
2. Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain
3. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich -  Not formally at event.
4. Former Utah Governor/Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman – Will not be at event
5. Michigan Representative Thad McCotter -  Was not asked to join the debate
6. Texas Representative Ron Paul
7. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
8. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney -  Will not be at event
9. Former Pennsylvania Senator/Jelly enthusiast Rick Santorum

So, the non-participants are Gary Johnson, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, and future primary candidate Rick Perry.  As well as Sarah Palin, who will be in Ames, but not participating as a candidate… yet.

Perry's presence, however, will be felt this weekend, as he's decided that he will be "making his intentions clear" and announcing his candidacy to run for President on Saturday… what timing!?! But not in Iowa.

How exactly does the Ames Straw Poll work?

It's useful to think of it like this: it's sort of an extension of the county fair, held outside the Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum, at which the participants in the poll are your hosts for the day. The candidates, with the help of their campaign staffs, are throwing the people of Iowa a big party, with food and entertainment and candidate pitches.

To that end, on June 24, the Iowa Republicans held an auction in which portions of the space for this "county fair" were sectioned off and sold to the highest bidder. The general consensus is that the portioned-off areas near the front of the space are the best locations. We have no idea why that is. Maybe Iowans just like making up their minds quickly, or they hate walking around. Either way, they are coveted.

Bidding for the spaces starts at $15,000. (Remember, every aspect of this is actually a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP.) The highest bid was submitted by Ron Paul. That's not that surprising: Ron Paul is a shrewd winner-of-straw-polls and timed his preseason "money-bombs" so he'd have plenty of scratch on hand to get the best possible spot. In this case, his $31,000 bid topped the field.

This year's auction featured a little bit of mystery in the form of an anonymous bidder, who showed up in Ames and refused to declare whose candidacy he was supporting. This caused the rest of the campaign operatives on hand to threaten a walkout. As it turns out, the secret operative was from the McCotter campaign, who ended up putting down $18,000 on a spot on the fairgrounds. (The Wall Street Journal described the bid as "a sum that suggests he wants to be taken seriously," which is difficult to square with the pointless cloak-and-dagger act that went on before the bid was made.)

After that, Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty and Santorum all took spots. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, though on the ballot, (whether they are officially on the ballot or just write-ins is somewhat unclear as we near the vote and reports vary) are skipping the event. Newt Gingrich had a representative at the auction who declined to make a bid on a space. A Gingrich spokesperson said, "We will work to turn people out, not because we have an air-conditioned tent, but because we have good ideas." But you know what? Having an air-conditioned tent in Iowa in August is a pretty good idea!

At any rate, it's better to put it like that then it is to say, "Oh, yeah, the entire campaign staff in Iowa recently quit, and we're up to our noses in campaign debt."

What happens once they've bought a space?

From there, the candidates each do their level best to show attendees a good time. They'll be serving food and providing a diverse array of fit-to-be-consumed-by-social-conservatives musical acts. (That means you probably shouldn't expect sets from Slipknot or Destrophy or hometown heroes The Envy Corps.) Ames' own The Nadas, however, will be among the performers. The HuffPost's Alex Becker has the complete guide to all the musical acts that will be performing.

Also, Mike Huckabee will be hauling his bass guitar all around the grounds, slapping it for whoever wants to hear. Originally, people thought that he was providing musical accompaniment exclusively to Herman Cain, but he'll actually be jamming with Santorum and Pawlenty as well. No favoritism! The guy just likes playing bass!  (Herman Cain gave Hannity’s audience a little sampling of his vocal talent on Friday night’s special coverage from the fair.)

Eventually, all of the candidates present at the event will get to address the throngs in a fifteen minute speech. The candidates get to choose their speaking slot, with the highest bidder in the Ames "land auction" getting first dibs. This year, the order will go like this: Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Thad McCotter, and Herman Cain. The monotony will be broken up with speeches from Iowa GOP luminaries like Terry Branstad, Chuck Grassley, and Steve King.

So, after all is said and done, how does the voting work?

Voters cast ballots for their favorite candidates, and they are totaled up and a winner is declared. Any attendee from the state of Iowa is eligible to cast a vote. You don't even need to be a Republican.

The candidates however, spend money to sign up supporters in advance. It's commonplace for campaigns to turn out support by buying tickets for people, and either providing transportation or paying for parking. Yes, that means that the Straw Poll is more of a test of a campaign's organizational strength than of the value of a candidate's ideas. It can be argued that all you've demonstrated, with an Ames win, is that you're good at busing people across Iowa. This sort of criticism is blunted somewhat by the fact that a bus ride does not constitute a binding contract to cast a vote, but let's get real: these campaigns wouldn't be buying free parking and food for people if they weren't more or less certain that it was going to translate into votes.

People can also write in a candidate, so Sarah Palin’s name will certainly show up and perhaps Rick Perry’s as well.

Some unusual voting shenanigan facts about the straw poll:

Up until 1995, anyone from anywhere could vote in the Ames Straw Poll. But after 1995, when the practice of busing out-of-state supporters in to Ames got out of hand, officials instituted the Iowa-only policy.

Also, in 1999, officials started using indelible ink to stamp the hands of people who had already voted, after widespread rumors of cheating surfaced in 1995 ("voters would have their hands stamped, run into the bathroom to wash the ink off, and go vote again").  This is exactly what we need to do to stop the double voting corruption in the all our elections!!

In 2007, voters actually had to dip their thumbs in ink, just like in the Iraqi elections! They were also required to present their tickets and I.D. Because, you know, ACORN.

In 2007, supporters of Ron Paul raised a bit of hue and cry over the Ames Straw Poll's use of "easily rigged Diebold computers" to tally up the votes.

More generally, people complain about how better funded campaigns have all the advantages in the Ames Straw Poll, if they're not already complaining about how better funded campaigns can actually skip the event altogether, without consequence.

The conventional wisdom is that the Ames Straw Poll is a key test for the viability of a campaign. But does that stand up under scrutiny?  Perhaps less these days than in days gone by?

So, who has something on the line in the Ames Straw Poll?

Frankly, nobody should really feel they have anything on the line, in Ames. Obviously, Bachmann, Paul, and Cain are three candidates who'll make great hay of an Ames win -- or even a strong showing -- should those results come to pass. Romney wouldn't sniff at a win, either, but he's got nothing invested in the process and will ride it out in any event. McCotter and Huntsman don't seem poised to bail if Ames doesn't go their way -- and neither should be expecting to do well. Santorum announced today that after spending 3 weeks straight in Iowa and visiting 68 counties that needs to place 5th of better in the poll to stay in? And Newt Gingrich seems to be wiling to stay in the process on his terms no matter how he fares.  The only person who has something legitimately on the line at Ames is Tim Pawlenty, and he hurt himself in the debate on Thursday night allowing Chris Wallace to pull him into an ‘Minnesota Nice’ match with Bachmann.  (Both Bachmann and Pawlenty need to show well in their neighboring state, but Bachmann seems to have little, or at least less, to worry about.

Back to the debate:

I actually watched the debate live and twice more in replays and took copious notes. For this is the GOP’s race to win or lose. The person who wins the GOP nomination, by many economist’s and political analyst’s views, could be the person who saves America or will be the last president to serve as head of the American nation as we know it, because unless they can turn it around, China is expected to take our place as the economic super power of the world in 2016. If Obama is reelected there are few who think we can survive as much more than just a shell of the nation we used to be.

As ‘President Downgrade’ proceeded with his fundraising, Ramadan Dinner, fiestas, vacation planning and blame game the GOP candidates, at least the major contenders in the race at this time, met in Ames Iowa for another debate.

After sleeping on my notes and reading up and listening to polls and reviews, this seems to be the consensus:

Jon Huntsman.  The word(s) most frequently used in social media about Jon Huntsman last night was “creepy” and “slimy”   From almost every point of view, Huntsman is a man who would clearly be more comfortable in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.  So why is he here?  Who knows?  He also seemed very unprepared. If anything, he turned more voters off last night who had not previously seen him.

Herman Cain. Herman Cain is probably the guy who would be the most fun to sit down and have a beer or  an iced tea with and he is very knowledgeable about business and finances. He did well in South Carolina, but his last two performances have been less than stellar, although he is getting better in the areas that are his weak points. In politics, unfortunately if you are not going up, you are going down. Herman kinda seems to be standing still.

Rick Santorum.  An hour into the debate, Santorum held up his hand and said, “I haven’t gotten a lot to say.”  Santorum was mostly ignored until the end which is unfortunate because he holds the values of fiscal conservatives and social conservatives and he had to fight to get his message out.  He did get into the fray somewhat, particularly clashing with Ron Paul.  Although he did a lot of campaigning in Iowa he is relatively unknown outside the Pennsylvania area and to some Fox News watchers.

Ron Paul.  It is hard to lump Ron Paul in as a winner or a loser.  Ron Paul is Ron Paul, kinda like the crazy, yet knowledgeable, old uncle that every has somewhere. He is a true Libertarian, through and through, and did his usual ranting about militarism and war mongering.  He is an expert and right on about the dangers of the Federal Reserve but he is way off on his underestimation of the dangers of Iran.  His opinion on social issues would be great if we lived in a perfect world, but alas…

Minor winners (because he was the frontrunner going in and still is):

Mitt Romney. Mitts strategy right now seems to be simply not to screw up.   He had his pat answers for Obamneycare and amazingly was again not really challenged, considering he is and remains the frontrunner, but the tougher debates will come.  He did look and act presidential , stayed out of the bickering and put his 7 point plan out on the table. As it was, he probably picked up a small margin overall.  He was the overall winner of the war, so to speak, by most estimates.

Big Winners:

Newt Gingrich. But the biggest winner of the night had to be Newt Gingrich.  Gingrich needed both a stellar performance in the debate and needs a good showing in the straw poll to keep his campaign alive.   Gingrich also looked Presidential and dominated a lot of the serious talk.  His comeback to Chris Wallace was spectacular.  The problem with Newt is he is a big government conservative.  If he were committed to the dismantling of socialism, he would be a great candidate.  If he were committed to absolutely destroying liberalism the way Reagan, who Newt often quotes, was committed to destroying Soviet Communism, he would be the guy we could all rally around. Unfortunately, he is not.

Michele Bachmann.  Memo to anyone who wants to take Michele Bachmann on:  Wear your body armor!  Whether you win or lose a fight with her, you are going to come away bloodied and bruised.  Bachmann was hit from all sides during the debate and held her own.  She took the tough questions from the panel and then fought back against the other candidates on the stage.  Michele Bachmann is a ‘Girl Scout with a sniper rifle’ (stole that line from Judson Phillips of TPN) and anyone who calls her out can expect to get hit. Michele showed the strength needed to be President.  She proved she could stand and take it, and then dish out better than she got.

The Biggest Loser:

Tim Pawlenty.  The only good news is Pawlenty’s performance was so bad he should soon be out of our misery.  Pawlenty, did not have the courage to attack Romney last time and barely did this time, but showed no compunction about attacking Michele Bachmann.  A bad chess move for him.

Pawlenty’s attacks against the only female candidate on the stage backfired.  He ended up looking like that creepy guy in the neighborhood who you expect any day will be arrested for stalking instead of presidential material.  Frank Luntz credited him with the funniest line of the night, but it wasn’t enough to save him.  Bachmann nailed Pawlenty for being the most like Obama of anyone on the stage, based on his past record. At the end, Pawlenty said we need conservative leadership.  Being neither conservative, nor a leader, he’s 0 for 2 in that department.

All of this leads us back to the straw poll on Saturday.

Romney is not participating, or at least just half way.  Ron Paul will probably win the straw poll.  His followers are enthusiastic and come out for him.  Paul winning the straw poll, however, may pretty much invalidate it.

Michele Bachmann will come in second but the real fight is for third and fourth place.  Those are actually the most important positions in this straw poll.

For the second tier candidates, third and fourth place means they can continue.   For any candidate who does not place at least fourth, with the exception of possible write in candidates Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, money will begin to dry up.  Some of those campaigns are already in death spirals.   Rick Santorum said today that he ‘had’ to place at least 5th, but in reality his campaign is over.  And, Tim Pawlenty’s will be after the straw poll.  His only purpose in continuing at this point will be to run for a cabinet position.  The same is probably true of Cain, who may get fourth place.  Gingrich may have pulled enough out of the debate to hit third or fourth place, although he may hang in no matter where he places, at least for awhile.

Perry will throw his hat in the ring on Saturday and if Sarah is jumping in, it will be by mid-September. By the time we get to New Hampshire the true fun and seriousness of the campaign will be upon us.  For those like Giuliani and Bolton, I’d say back and help someone else.  As of Chris Christy… he would add some spice to the race.  And for Trump… please don’t screw this up and run as a third party candidate.

When you look at the line-up the two toughest candidates are the gals, if Palin gets in and of course Christy if he jumps in.  It looks like it really is still early in this race!!  And as Newt Gingrich said, “We are 15-months from the election, the Super Congress is a horrible idea and we have done nothing to attack our debt problems.  We cannot wait until the election.  He told Boehner on air that he needs to call he House back to Washington on Monday!”

But in reality, the more research you do, the more you realize that the true winner of the Ames Straw Poll is Ames itself, because it stimulates the local economy and brings a lot of attention to Iowa.  But at least for now, people seem to watch the activities there with a lot of interest, if not complete seriousness.

You can watch the full debate here in these Videos if you missed it:

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 1

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 2

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 3

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.4

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa  pt.5

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa pt.6

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.7

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.8

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.9

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.10

Michele Bachmann "I've Been The Lone Voice In Washington Saying We Can't Raise The Debt Ceiling!"

"I Just Don't Believe These Wars Are Necessary" Ron Paul Post Debate Interview

h/t to Jean Stoner, the Huffington Post, and TPN

Related:

GB:  GOP Hopefuls Debate

Update:  8/13/2011 12:10A.M. ET

I just watched the replay of Hannity’s earlier live show from the Des Moines State Fair.  He had several people on including Gov Sarah Palin, GOP Candidate Herman Cain, Rep Steve King and Joe Trippi, is a long-time Democratic campaign consultant and political analyst.

For Sarah Palin’s interview with Hannity, the fair grounds around them were packed and the crowd was engaged.  All I can say is that Sarah is a phenomenon.  She lights up a room, captures a crowd at an event and has a down-home type of charisma that is relatable. I think she will run, do does Hannity. You can see the passion and love for this country in her eyes. 

Joe Trippi who is a Democratic political analyst and worked for crazy ass Howard Dean said tonight that he thinks if Sarah Palin were in the Iowa straw poll that she would walk away with it hands down.   That is quite a statement coming from him. And Rep Steve King said he has seen her in action and she can ‘work a room’ like nobody he has ever seen. I saw her speak live to an audience in an outdoor stadium. She is pretty amazing, Live!  She can make a crowd light up… which is tough in an outdoor arena.

I also think the notion that she can’t win is only true if we allow the media to convince us of that.  Sarah has a Libertarian streak that give her an edge over Bachmann.  She is also more down to earth. Don’t get me wrong… I like Bachmann, but there is something about Palin that is magic! 

Update: 8.13.2011 6:39PM ET

Bachmann Wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll

I just watched the replay of Hannity’s earlier live show from the Des Moines State Fair. He had several people on including Gov Sarah Palin, GOP Candidate Herman Cain, Rep Steve King and Joe Trippi, is a long-time Democratic campaign consultant and political analyst.

For Sarah Palin’s interview with Hannity, the fair grounds around them were packed and the crowd was engaged. All I can say is that Sarah is a phenomenon. She lights up a room, captures a crowd at an event and has a down-home type of charisma that is relatable. I think she will run, do does Hannity. You can see the passion and love for this country in her eyes.

Joe Trippi who is a Democratic political analyst and worked for crazy ass Howard Dean said tonight that he thinks if Sarah Palin were in the Iowa straw poll that she would walk away with it hands down. That is quite a statement coming from him. And Rep Steve King said he has seen her in action and she can ‘work a room’ like nobody he has ever seen. I saw her speak live to an audience in an outdoor stadium. She is pretty amazing, Live! She can make a crowd light up… which is tough in an outdoor arena.

I also think the notion that she can’t win is only true if we allow the media to convince us of that. Sarah has a Libertarian streak that give her an edge over Bachmann. She is also more down to earth. Don’t get me wrong… I like Bachmann, but there is something about Palin that is magic!

Update: 8.13.2011 6:39PM ET

No real surprises in Ames as Rep. Michele Bachmann came in first with 4,823 votes, narrowly edging Ron Paul out of the top spot and finishing far ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty:

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty secured 2,293 votes. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 1,657. Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain locked-up 1,456 votes. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who did not actively campaign in the event, captured 567 votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who also did not aggressively look to secure support in the straw poll, got 385 votes. U.S. Rep Thad McCotter, a longshot contender, received 35 votes. And Jon Huntsman Jr. received 69 votes.

The Minnesota congresswoman narrowly outpaced libertarian Rep. Ron Paul, who had 4,671 votes, and whose red t-shirt-wearing supporters flooded the campus of Iowa State University, and packed the arena when Paul spoke. Paul gave a strong anti-abortion speech. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty finished third with 2,293, a showing that keeps him in the game for next year's Iowa caucuses, but had to come off as slightly disappointing. He spent in $1 million dollars in Iowa. (Santorum and Cain spent little and did it the old fashioned way by meeting people and shaking hands).

The hope in his camp was that his organization muscle in Iowa would propel him to the top, but he was no match for the charismatic Bachmann, whose political star continues its dizzying ascent. Where Pawlenty relied on traditional, on-the-ground campaigning, Bachmann rode a wave of media-fueled enthusiasm that, right now, shows no sign of abating.
Still, in spite of Bachmann's victory, the poll came on the day that Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared that he, too, will mount a presidential run, setting up a showdown in Iowa over the social and fiscal conservatives that dominate the caucuses here. Perry had mounted an on the ground write-in campaign for the Straw Poll with a representative and staff even though he did not appear there and garnered 712 write-in votes.

Bachmann planned to appear on the five major network Sunday morning talk shows Sunday as part of a blitz to capitalize on the win--and perhaps a tactic to thwart Perry's momentum. Both candidates will speak at a dinner in Waterloo, Iowa Sunday evening.

The result is the first indication of what Iowans think of the field of Republicans competing for the chance to challenge President Barack Obama next fall. But it's hardly predictive of who will win the winter Iowa contest, much less the party nod or the White House.

We may see a one or two dropouts as a result of the straw poll. Rick Santorum hinted yesterday that he might call it quits if he didn't do well. He finished a distant fourth, but said he needed to finish 5th to stay in. Herman Cain is expected to continue his campaign despite finishing 5th, but his polls show that him at 3rd across the state of Iowa.

Bachmann Wins Iowa Straw Poll, Paul Second Followed by Pawlenty

Ron Paul Emphasizes Social Issues as the Veteran Congressman Finishes 2nd in Ames

Pawlenty Campaign Moves Forward After Third Place Straw Poll Finish

Is Palin Definitely Out of the 2012 Race?

Texas Governor Rick Perry Announces Bid for President

See Romney’s Heated Exchange With Angry, Heckling Crowd In Iowa

Santorum After Ames Boost: ‘Voters Rallied Around Our Message’

Herman Cain Touted Business Experience at Straw Poll: ‘The Engine of Economic Growth Is the Business Sector’  -  But Cain He Do It?

Obama: New Low Jobs Approval Rating Sinks Below 40% For the First Time - But not to worry, he is heading out on a jobs bus tour this week on the taxpayer’s nickel to fire us up… before leaving on his Martha’s Vineyard vacation….

It Begins: Bachmann and Perry at Same Event

Allen West: Ron Paul ‘Not the Kind of Guy You Want to be Sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave’

1st Official Casualty of Straw Poll: Pawlenty Out

Herman Cain won the best line award in the straw poll speeches… “People say I don’t have much foreign policy experience….(pause), Like the guy that’s in the White House now does?”