Watcher’s Council Nominations… Ryan’s Hope Edition

JoshuaPundit:

Hope and change indeed… and of the real kind.

Welcome to the Watcher’s Council, a blogging group consisting of some of the most incisive blogs in the ‘sphere, and the longest running group of its kind in existence. Every week, the members nominate two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council.Then we vote on the best two posts, with the results appearing on Friday.

Council News:

This week, Right Truth, Ask Marion, Maggie’s Notebook and The Pirate’s Cove took advantage of my generous offer of linkage and earned honorable mention status with some excellent pieces.

You can, too! Want to see your work appear on the Watcher’s Council homepage in our weekly contest listing? Didn’t get nominated by a Council member? No worries.

Simply head over to Joshuapundit and post the title and a link to the piece you want considered along with an e-mail address ( which won’t be published) in the comments section on any article no later than Monday 6PM PST in order to be considered for our honorable mention category.

Then just return the favor by creating a post on your site linking to the Watcher’s Council contest for the week when it comes out on Wednesday.

It’s a great way of exposing your best work to Watcher’s Council readers and Council members. while grabbing the increased traffic and notoriety. And how good is that, eh?

So,without further ado, let’s see what we have this week…

Council Submissions

• The Noisy Room – Optimism for a Change
• The Political Commentator – A Republican Jew from New York’s story on growing up Democrat!
• The Independent Sentinel – Barack Obama Is Destroying Our Weapons And It’s Going Well
• The Right Planet – Obama Goes Full-On Marxist: ‘Prosperity Is Shared’
• GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Aegypt”s Coup d’état
• Bookworm Room – Other than all that, what has Paul Ryan ever done for us?
• The Colossus of Rhodey – At Least the NY Times Public Editor Recognizes It
• Joshuapundit -The ‘Ending Medicare’ Myth And How It Turns The Issue In Favor Of The GOP
• Gay Patriot – An Obama victory in 2012 would undermine Obama’s 2008 rationale for his election
• The Glittering Eye -The War on Algebra
• VA Right! - No Mr. President. BUSH Tried it YOUR Way and it Didn’t Work! Now Let Romney-Ryan Fix Your Progressive Mess!
• Rhymes With Right – Obama College Classmate Raises Questions
• The Razor – The Bleeding Heart of the Cynic
• The Mellow Jihadi – Forgive Me, I Am Downloading Steve Earle. Again. . .
• Simply Jews – The delights of Inspire Magazine by Al Qaeda

Honorable Mentions

• Ask Marion – Romney-Ryan: America’s New Dream Team and a Clear Choice -  Updated
• Maggie’s Notebook – Fast Furious Questions About Romney-Ryan DOJ: Can It Criminally Prosecute a Chicago Bound Eric Holder?
• Right Truth – A Bunch of Bullets or What?
• The Pirate’s Cove – GOP Has 10 Questions For Next Time Obama Takes Any

Non-Council Submissions

• Mark Steyn – Mark Steyn: Obama the great disabler submitted by The Noisy Room
• John Mauldin - And Then There Is Disaster C submitted by The Political Commentator
• CNS News – Obamacare Reg: Health Plans Must Sterilize 15-Yr-Old Girls for Free submitted by The Independent Sentinel
• The American Spectator – Obama’s Labor Theory of Value submitted by The Right Planet
• Flashpoints – China’s Growing Long-Range Strike Capability submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• The Onion - Admit It, I Scare The Ever-Loving S**t Out Of You, Don’t I? submitted by Bookworm Room
• The Weekly Standard – The Tory Anarchist submitted by The Colossus of Rhodey
• Sultan Knish – The Most Divisive Campaign in American History submitted by Joshuapundit
• Commentary Contentions - Paul Ryan and Obama’s Identity Crisis submitted by Gay Patriot
• Michael Moynihan/Foreign Policy – Leftist Planet submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Israel Hayom – Israeli intelligence cracks massive Hezbollah bomb plot submitted by VA Right!
• Bob Owens – How long before one of Obama’s cultists goes the “full Moore?” submitted by Rhymes with Right
• Wayne Allyn Root/The Blaze – Obama’s College Classmate: ‘The Obama Scandal Is at Columbia’ submitted by The Razor
• Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion – Whistleblower asserts state employees coerced to attend Pelosi, Jesse Jackson political event submitted by The Mellow Jihadi
• Daphne Anson – “Deserts Into Gardens & Waste Places Into Cultivated Fields”: Palestine As It Was In 1865 & 1899 submitted by The Watcher
• Rueben Navarette – U.S. Olympic athlete, Mexican flag? submitted by The Watcher

Enjoy! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter..’cause we’re cool like that!

This Week’s Forum Question:  Should Romney Go Negative?

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Iowa GOP Debate and Straw Poll…

Updates: Straw Poll Winner Results and More Updates below: 

1st Official Casualty of Straw Poll: Pawlenty Out

Who won the Republican Presidential Debate?

Who won the Iowa GOP debate?  That would depend on who you talk to and which poll you are looking at.  Fox’s online National poll showed Ron Paul as the winner.  Several polls showed Mitt Romney as the winner and I even heard that one showed Newt Gingrich, who was pretty much counted out before last Thursday’s debate, as the winner.

Below is my ‘Quick Take’ on Thursday night’s debate written Immediately after the debate and wrap up:

Romney appeared and sounded the most presidential.  He didn't allow himself to be pulled into the weeds like Pawlenty and Bachmann, and he gave his 7 point plan simply and right up front without being asked directly for it.  He is not my first choice but he did well in this debate!

I generally agreed with Frank Luntz and Joe Trippi's analysis given on Hannity's special right after the debate.  I thought the same before Hannity had them on.

Gingrich won the battle (against the media) and helped himself. (Shame on Chris Wallace, who I generally like, for the ‘gotcha’ questions’).  Romney won this round of the war.  Huntsman is out  (sounded unprepared and like he was a Democrat part of the time). Bachmann held her own and came out looking like a fighter. Pawlenty, although he has a good plan hurt himself, at least somewhat, in this debate. Santorum, Cain and Paul did fine.  Santorum and Paul got into a back and forth but made it about their points and issues, so it didn't come across as petty as Pawlenty and Bachmann's back and forth.  Cain stood strong and seemed more informed on his weaker areas.

After watching the debate, there is definitely room for Palin, Perry and a few others who are still debating their entry into this field.  Their entering the race would change the dynamics and probably knock out a few of the present weaker contenders.... sooner.  M~

More on the debate below…

Saturday 8.13.11 is the Ames Iowa Straw Poll…

So, what is the Ames Iowa Straw Poll?

This is actually a bit more complicated than you would think, but the short answer is that it is a straw poll, held by the Iowa Republican Party as a part of a fundraising dinner, in Ames, Iowa. Ames -- the home of Iowa State University (go Cyclones!) -- is located in Story County, which sits in the dead center of the state. This marks it as a symbolic location, the ideal place to officially kick off six months of state-wide political festivities. It will be held Saturday, August 13th.  Part of the festivities of this Iowa State Fair are the candidates coming to meet, greet and eat with you up close and personal!  And that includes Sarah Palin, who has not yet thrown her hat in the ring, but rolled into Ames in her bus on Friday and took part in the festivities with her family. She also appeared on Hannity’s special from Ames on Friday night along with several of the GOP candidates from Thursday’s debate, Rep Steve King and political analyst Joe Trippi.  

The Ames Straw Poll has been conducted every year there hasn't been an incumbent GOP president since 1979. That makes it sound like a more impressive tradition than it actually is -- there have only ever been five Ames Straw Polls.

In a larger sense, the Ames Straw Poll serves a heroic purpose in our American lives. It gives the media something to fixate on in the critical month of August, when reporters often bellyache about there being "nothing to write about" because all the powerful men and women they have access to have left Washington, leaving everyone with a slow news month. Left to their own devices, the media can mess things up royally.

This year they should be covering the town halls that most of the Congressmen and Senators have been holding back in their home areas and hopefully they will have Boehner to cover as he calls, at least the republicans, back to Washington to deal with the problems and debt. Who knows… some Dems might return and Harry Reid might even be shamed into calling the Senate back. (Actually according to New Gingrich, 15 blue-dog democrats have signed a letter saying they feel Congress should reconvene to deal with the problems at hand.) That way when Obama returns from his Martha’s Vineyard vacation he might have some bills to sign??? or veto??? And then there is Glenn Beck’s Restoring Courage Event in Israel later in the month to cover… but I guess I am dreaming?!?

800 reporters will be credentialed to cover this straw poll, a new record.

Who is participating in this year's poll?

1. Minnesota Representative Michele Bachmann
2. Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain
3. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich -  Not formally at event.
4. Former Utah Governor/Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman – Will not be at event
5. Michigan Representative Thad McCotter -  Was not asked to join the debate
6. Texas Representative Ron Paul
7. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
8. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney -  Will not be at event
9. Former Pennsylvania Senator/Jelly enthusiast Rick Santorum

So, the non-participants are Gary Johnson, Fred Karger, Buddy Roemer, and future primary candidate Rick Perry.  As well as Sarah Palin, who will be in Ames, but not participating as a candidate… yet.

Perry's presence, however, will be felt this weekend, as he's decided that he will be "making his intentions clear" and announcing his candidacy to run for President on Saturday… what timing!?! But not in Iowa.

How exactly does the Ames Straw Poll work?

It's useful to think of it like this: it's sort of an extension of the county fair, held outside the Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum, at which the participants in the poll are your hosts for the day. The candidates, with the help of their campaign staffs, are throwing the people of Iowa a big party, with food and entertainment and candidate pitches.

To that end, on June 24, the Iowa Republicans held an auction in which portions of the space for this "county fair" were sectioned off and sold to the highest bidder. The general consensus is that the portioned-off areas near the front of the space are the best locations. We have no idea why that is. Maybe Iowans just like making up their minds quickly, or they hate walking around. Either way, they are coveted.

Bidding for the spaces starts at $15,000. (Remember, every aspect of this is actually a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP.) The highest bid was submitted by Ron Paul. That's not that surprising: Ron Paul is a shrewd winner-of-straw-polls and timed his preseason "money-bombs" so he'd have plenty of scratch on hand to get the best possible spot. In this case, his $31,000 bid topped the field.

This year's auction featured a little bit of mystery in the form of an anonymous bidder, who showed up in Ames and refused to declare whose candidacy he was supporting. This caused the rest of the campaign operatives on hand to threaten a walkout. As it turns out, the secret operative was from the McCotter campaign, who ended up putting down $18,000 on a spot on the fairgrounds. (The Wall Street Journal described the bid as "a sum that suggests he wants to be taken seriously," which is difficult to square with the pointless cloak-and-dagger act that went on before the bid was made.)

After that, Bachmann, Cain, Pawlenty and Santorum all took spots. Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, though on the ballot, (whether they are officially on the ballot or just write-ins is somewhat unclear as we near the vote and reports vary) are skipping the event. Newt Gingrich had a representative at the auction who declined to make a bid on a space. A Gingrich spokesperson said, "We will work to turn people out, not because we have an air-conditioned tent, but because we have good ideas." But you know what? Having an air-conditioned tent in Iowa in August is a pretty good idea!

At any rate, it's better to put it like that then it is to say, "Oh, yeah, the entire campaign staff in Iowa recently quit, and we're up to our noses in campaign debt."

What happens once they've bought a space?

From there, the candidates each do their level best to show attendees a good time. They'll be serving food and providing a diverse array of fit-to-be-consumed-by-social-conservatives musical acts. (That means you probably shouldn't expect sets from Slipknot or Destrophy or hometown heroes The Envy Corps.) Ames' own The Nadas, however, will be among the performers. The HuffPost's Alex Becker has the complete guide to all the musical acts that will be performing.

Also, Mike Huckabee will be hauling his bass guitar all around the grounds, slapping it for whoever wants to hear. Originally, people thought that he was providing musical accompaniment exclusively to Herman Cain, but he'll actually be jamming with Santorum and Pawlenty as well. No favoritism! The guy just likes playing bass!  (Herman Cain gave Hannity’s audience a little sampling of his vocal talent on Friday night’s special coverage from the fair.)

Eventually, all of the candidates present at the event will get to address the throngs in a fifteen minute speech. The candidates get to choose their speaking slot, with the highest bidder in the Ames "land auction" getting first dibs. This year, the order will go like this: Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann, Thad McCotter, and Herman Cain. The monotony will be broken up with speeches from Iowa GOP luminaries like Terry Branstad, Chuck Grassley, and Steve King.

So, after all is said and done, how does the voting work?

Voters cast ballots for their favorite candidates, and they are totaled up and a winner is declared. Any attendee from the state of Iowa is eligible to cast a vote. You don't even need to be a Republican.

The candidates however, spend money to sign up supporters in advance. It's commonplace for campaigns to turn out support by buying tickets for people, and either providing transportation or paying for parking. Yes, that means that the Straw Poll is more of a test of a campaign's organizational strength than of the value of a candidate's ideas. It can be argued that all you've demonstrated, with an Ames win, is that you're good at busing people across Iowa. This sort of criticism is blunted somewhat by the fact that a bus ride does not constitute a binding contract to cast a vote, but let's get real: these campaigns wouldn't be buying free parking and food for people if they weren't more or less certain that it was going to translate into votes.

People can also write in a candidate, so Sarah Palin’s name will certainly show up and perhaps Rick Perry’s as well.

Some unusual voting shenanigan facts about the straw poll:

Up until 1995, anyone from anywhere could vote in the Ames Straw Poll. But after 1995, when the practice of busing out-of-state supporters in to Ames got out of hand, officials instituted the Iowa-only policy.

Also, in 1999, officials started using indelible ink to stamp the hands of people who had already voted, after widespread rumors of cheating surfaced in 1995 ("voters would have their hands stamped, run into the bathroom to wash the ink off, and go vote again").  This is exactly what we need to do to stop the double voting corruption in the all our elections!!

In 2007, voters actually had to dip their thumbs in ink, just like in the Iraqi elections! They were also required to present their tickets and I.D. Because, you know, ACORN.

In 2007, supporters of Ron Paul raised a bit of hue and cry over the Ames Straw Poll's use of "easily rigged Diebold computers" to tally up the votes.

More generally, people complain about how better funded campaigns have all the advantages in the Ames Straw Poll, if they're not already complaining about how better funded campaigns can actually skip the event altogether, without consequence.

The conventional wisdom is that the Ames Straw Poll is a key test for the viability of a campaign. But does that stand up under scrutiny?  Perhaps less these days than in days gone by?

So, who has something on the line in the Ames Straw Poll?

Frankly, nobody should really feel they have anything on the line, in Ames. Obviously, Bachmann, Paul, and Cain are three candidates who'll make great hay of an Ames win -- or even a strong showing -- should those results come to pass. Romney wouldn't sniff at a win, either, but he's got nothing invested in the process and will ride it out in any event. McCotter and Huntsman don't seem poised to bail if Ames doesn't go their way -- and neither should be expecting to do well. Santorum announced today that after spending 3 weeks straight in Iowa and visiting 68 counties that needs to place 5th of better in the poll to stay in? And Newt Gingrich seems to be wiling to stay in the process on his terms no matter how he fares.  The only person who has something legitimately on the line at Ames is Tim Pawlenty, and he hurt himself in the debate on Thursday night allowing Chris Wallace to pull him into an ‘Minnesota Nice’ match with Bachmann.  (Both Bachmann and Pawlenty need to show well in their neighboring state, but Bachmann seems to have little, or at least less, to worry about.

Back to the debate:

I actually watched the debate live and twice more in replays and took copious notes. For this is the GOP’s race to win or lose. The person who wins the GOP nomination, by many economist’s and political analyst’s views, could be the person who saves America or will be the last president to serve as head of the American nation as we know it, because unless they can turn it around, China is expected to take our place as the economic super power of the world in 2016. If Obama is reelected there are few who think we can survive as much more than just a shell of the nation we used to be.

As ‘President Downgrade’ proceeded with his fundraising, Ramadan Dinner, fiestas, vacation planning and blame game the GOP candidates, at least the major contenders in the race at this time, met in Ames Iowa for another debate.

After sleeping on my notes and reading up and listening to polls and reviews, this seems to be the consensus:

Jon Huntsman.  The word(s) most frequently used in social media about Jon Huntsman last night was “creepy” and “slimy”   From almost every point of view, Huntsman is a man who would clearly be more comfortable in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.  So why is he here?  Who knows?  He also seemed very unprepared. If anything, he turned more voters off last night who had not previously seen him.

Herman Cain. Herman Cain is probably the guy who would be the most fun to sit down and have a beer or  an iced tea with and he is very knowledgeable about business and finances. He did well in South Carolina, but his last two performances have been less than stellar, although he is getting better in the areas that are his weak points. In politics, unfortunately if you are not going up, you are going down. Herman kinda seems to be standing still.

Rick Santorum.  An hour into the debate, Santorum held up his hand and said, “I haven’t gotten a lot to say.”  Santorum was mostly ignored until the end which is unfortunate because he holds the values of fiscal conservatives and social conservatives and he had to fight to get his message out.  He did get into the fray somewhat, particularly clashing with Ron Paul.  Although he did a lot of campaigning in Iowa he is relatively unknown outside the Pennsylvania area and to some Fox News watchers.

Ron Paul.  It is hard to lump Ron Paul in as a winner or a loser.  Ron Paul is Ron Paul, kinda like the crazy, yet knowledgeable, old uncle that every has somewhere. He is a true Libertarian, through and through, and did his usual ranting about militarism and war mongering.  He is an expert and right on about the dangers of the Federal Reserve but he is way off on his underestimation of the dangers of Iran.  His opinion on social issues would be great if we lived in a perfect world, but alas…

Minor winners (because he was the frontrunner going in and still is):

Mitt Romney. Mitts strategy right now seems to be simply not to screw up.   He had his pat answers for Obamneycare and amazingly was again not really challenged, considering he is and remains the frontrunner, but the tougher debates will come.  He did look and act presidential , stayed out of the bickering and put his 7 point plan out on the table. As it was, he probably picked up a small margin overall.  He was the overall winner of the war, so to speak, by most estimates.

Big Winners:

Newt Gingrich. But the biggest winner of the night had to be Newt Gingrich.  Gingrich needed both a stellar performance in the debate and needs a good showing in the straw poll to keep his campaign alive.   Gingrich also looked Presidential and dominated a lot of the serious talk.  His comeback to Chris Wallace was spectacular.  The problem with Newt is he is a big government conservative.  If he were committed to the dismantling of socialism, he would be a great candidate.  If he were committed to absolutely destroying liberalism the way Reagan, who Newt often quotes, was committed to destroying Soviet Communism, he would be the guy we could all rally around. Unfortunately, he is not.

Michele Bachmann.  Memo to anyone who wants to take Michele Bachmann on:  Wear your body armor!  Whether you win or lose a fight with her, you are going to come away bloodied and bruised.  Bachmann was hit from all sides during the debate and held her own.  She took the tough questions from the panel and then fought back against the other candidates on the stage.  Michele Bachmann is a ‘Girl Scout with a sniper rifle’ (stole that line from Judson Phillips of TPN) and anyone who calls her out can expect to get hit. Michele showed the strength needed to be President.  She proved she could stand and take it, and then dish out better than she got.

The Biggest Loser:

Tim Pawlenty.  The only good news is Pawlenty’s performance was so bad he should soon be out of our misery.  Pawlenty, did not have the courage to attack Romney last time and barely did this time, but showed no compunction about attacking Michele Bachmann.  A bad chess move for him.

Pawlenty’s attacks against the only female candidate on the stage backfired.  He ended up looking like that creepy guy in the neighborhood who you expect any day will be arrested for stalking instead of presidential material.  Frank Luntz credited him with the funniest line of the night, but it wasn’t enough to save him.  Bachmann nailed Pawlenty for being the most like Obama of anyone on the stage, based on his past record. At the end, Pawlenty said we need conservative leadership.  Being neither conservative, nor a leader, he’s 0 for 2 in that department.

All of this leads us back to the straw poll on Saturday.

Romney is not participating, or at least just half way.  Ron Paul will probably win the straw poll.  His followers are enthusiastic and come out for him.  Paul winning the straw poll, however, may pretty much invalidate it.

Michele Bachmann will come in second but the real fight is for third and fourth place.  Those are actually the most important positions in this straw poll.

For the second tier candidates, third and fourth place means they can continue.   For any candidate who does not place at least fourth, with the exception of possible write in candidates Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, money will begin to dry up.  Some of those campaigns are already in death spirals.   Rick Santorum said today that he ‘had’ to place at least 5th, but in reality his campaign is over.  And, Tim Pawlenty’s will be after the straw poll.  His only purpose in continuing at this point will be to run for a cabinet position.  The same is probably true of Cain, who may get fourth place.  Gingrich may have pulled enough out of the debate to hit third or fourth place, although he may hang in no matter where he places, at least for awhile.

Perry will throw his hat in the ring on Saturday and if Sarah is jumping in, it will be by mid-September. By the time we get to New Hampshire the true fun and seriousness of the campaign will be upon us.  For those like Giuliani and Bolton, I’d say back and help someone else.  As of Chris Christy… he would add some spice to the race.  And for Trump… please don’t screw this up and run as a third party candidate.

When you look at the line-up the two toughest candidates are the gals, if Palin gets in and of course Christy if he jumps in.  It looks like it really is still early in this race!!  And as Newt Gingrich said, “We are 15-months from the election, the Super Congress is a horrible idea and we have done nothing to attack our debt problems.  We cannot wait until the election.  He told Boehner on air that he needs to call he House back to Washington on Monday!”

But in reality, the more research you do, the more you realize that the true winner of the Ames Straw Poll is Ames itself, because it stimulates the local economy and brings a lot of attention to Iowa.  But at least for now, people seem to watch the activities there with a lot of interest, if not complete seriousness.

You can watch the full debate here in these Videos if you missed it:

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 1

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 2

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa Part 3

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.4

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa  pt.5

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate in Iowa pt.6

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.7

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.8

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.9

2012 Presidential Republican Primary Debate In Iowa pt.10

Michele Bachmann "I've Been The Lone Voice In Washington Saying We Can't Raise The Debt Ceiling!"

"I Just Don't Believe These Wars Are Necessary" Ron Paul Post Debate Interview

h/t to Jean Stoner, the Huffington Post, and TPN

Related:

GB:  GOP Hopefuls Debate

Update:  8/13/2011 12:10A.M. ET

I just watched the replay of Hannity’s earlier live show from the Des Moines State Fair.  He had several people on including Gov Sarah Palin, GOP Candidate Herman Cain, Rep Steve King and Joe Trippi, is a long-time Democratic campaign consultant and political analyst.

For Sarah Palin’s interview with Hannity, the fair grounds around them were packed and the crowd was engaged.  All I can say is that Sarah is a phenomenon.  She lights up a room, captures a crowd at an event and has a down-home type of charisma that is relatable. I think she will run, do does Hannity. You can see the passion and love for this country in her eyes. 

Joe Trippi who is a Democratic political analyst and worked for crazy ass Howard Dean said tonight that he thinks if Sarah Palin were in the Iowa straw poll that she would walk away with it hands down.   That is quite a statement coming from him. And Rep Steve King said he has seen her in action and she can ‘work a room’ like nobody he has ever seen. I saw her speak live to an audience in an outdoor stadium. She is pretty amazing, Live!  She can make a crowd light up… which is tough in an outdoor arena.

I also think the notion that she can’t win is only true if we allow the media to convince us of that.  Sarah has a Libertarian streak that give her an edge over Bachmann.  She is also more down to earth. Don’t get me wrong… I like Bachmann, but there is something about Palin that is magic! 

Update: 8.13.2011 6:39PM ET

Bachmann Wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll

I just watched the replay of Hannity’s earlier live show from the Des Moines State Fair. He had several people on including Gov Sarah Palin, GOP Candidate Herman Cain, Rep Steve King and Joe Trippi, is a long-time Democratic campaign consultant and political analyst.

For Sarah Palin’s interview with Hannity, the fair grounds around them were packed and the crowd was engaged. All I can say is that Sarah is a phenomenon. She lights up a room, captures a crowd at an event and has a down-home type of charisma that is relatable. I think she will run, do does Hannity. You can see the passion and love for this country in her eyes.

Joe Trippi who is a Democratic political analyst and worked for crazy ass Howard Dean said tonight that he thinks if Sarah Palin were in the Iowa straw poll that she would walk away with it hands down. That is quite a statement coming from him. And Rep Steve King said he has seen her in action and she can ‘work a room’ like nobody he has ever seen. I saw her speak live to an audience in an outdoor stadium. She is pretty amazing, Live! She can make a crowd light up… which is tough in an outdoor arena.

I also think the notion that she can’t win is only true if we allow the media to convince us of that. Sarah has a Libertarian streak that give her an edge over Bachmann. She is also more down to earth. Don’t get me wrong… I like Bachmann, but there is something about Palin that is magic!

Update: 8.13.2011 6:39PM ET

No real surprises in Ames as Rep. Michele Bachmann came in first with 4,823 votes, narrowly edging Ron Paul out of the top spot and finishing far ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty:

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty secured 2,293 votes. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 1,657. Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain locked-up 1,456 votes. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who did not actively campaign in the event, captured 567 votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who also did not aggressively look to secure support in the straw poll, got 385 votes. U.S. Rep Thad McCotter, a longshot contender, received 35 votes. And Jon Huntsman Jr. received 69 votes.

The Minnesota congresswoman narrowly outpaced libertarian Rep. Ron Paul, who had 4,671 votes, and whose red t-shirt-wearing supporters flooded the campus of Iowa State University, and packed the arena when Paul spoke. Paul gave a strong anti-abortion speech. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty finished third with 2,293, a showing that keeps him in the game for next year's Iowa caucuses, but had to come off as slightly disappointing. He spent in $1 million dollars in Iowa. (Santorum and Cain spent little and did it the old fashioned way by meeting people and shaking hands).

The hope in his camp was that his organization muscle in Iowa would propel him to the top, but he was no match for the charismatic Bachmann, whose political star continues its dizzying ascent. Where Pawlenty relied on traditional, on-the-ground campaigning, Bachmann rode a wave of media-fueled enthusiasm that, right now, shows no sign of abating.
Still, in spite of Bachmann's victory, the poll came on the day that Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared that he, too, will mount a presidential run, setting up a showdown in Iowa over the social and fiscal conservatives that dominate the caucuses here. Perry had mounted an on the ground write-in campaign for the Straw Poll with a representative and staff even though he did not appear there and garnered 712 write-in votes.

Bachmann planned to appear on the five major network Sunday morning talk shows Sunday as part of a blitz to capitalize on the win--and perhaps a tactic to thwart Perry's momentum. Both candidates will speak at a dinner in Waterloo, Iowa Sunday evening.

The result is the first indication of what Iowans think of the field of Republicans competing for the chance to challenge President Barack Obama next fall. But it's hardly predictive of who will win the winter Iowa contest, much less the party nod or the White House.

We may see a one or two dropouts as a result of the straw poll. Rick Santorum hinted yesterday that he might call it quits if he didn't do well. He finished a distant fourth, but said he needed to finish 5th to stay in. Herman Cain is expected to continue his campaign despite finishing 5th, but his polls show that him at 3rd across the state of Iowa.

Bachmann Wins Iowa Straw Poll, Paul Second Followed by Pawlenty

Ron Paul Emphasizes Social Issues as the Veteran Congressman Finishes 2nd in Ames

Pawlenty Campaign Moves Forward After Third Place Straw Poll Finish

Is Palin Definitely Out of the 2012 Race?

Texas Governor Rick Perry Announces Bid for President

See Romney’s Heated Exchange With Angry, Heckling Crowd In Iowa

Santorum After Ames Boost: ‘Voters Rallied Around Our Message’

Herman Cain Touted Business Experience at Straw Poll: ‘The Engine of Economic Growth Is the Business Sector’  -  But Cain He Do It?

Obama: New Low Jobs Approval Rating Sinks Below 40% For the First Time - But not to worry, he is heading out on a jobs bus tour this week on the taxpayer’s nickel to fire us up… before leaving on his Martha’s Vineyard vacation….

It Begins: Bachmann and Perry at Same Event

Allen West: Ron Paul ‘Not the Kind of Guy You Want to be Sitting at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave’

1st Official Casualty of Straw Poll: Pawlenty Out

Herman Cain won the best line award in the straw poll speeches… “People say I don’t have much foreign policy experience….(pause), Like the guy that’s in the White House now does?”

President Palin Poll… Say That 3 Times

Sarah Palin Poll Results are In!

After one month of voting, the Results of the Townhall.com Sarah Palin Poll have been tabulated and released.

-------------------

Since 2008, speculation of the former Alaska Governor and vice president nominee, Sarah Palin, would mount her own run for presidency. Many are excited at the possibility of a Sarah Palin presidency, others think that she would play a more powerful role as an elder stateswoman for conservatism.

Thanks for sharing your opinion in this Townhall.com poll! With over 46,000 votes counted, the results are:

Voting will continue throughout the coming months; Townhall.com will continue to tabulate the results and inform all voters of the outcome.

Townhall.com is the leader in conservative commentary and analysis by pulling together political opinions from over 100 leading columnnists, research from many partner organizations, conservative talk-radio and a community of grassroots conservatives. Townhall.com is designed to amplify those conservative voices in America's political debates.  By uniting the nations' top conservative radio hosts with their millions of listeners, Townhall.com breaks down the barriers between news and opinion, journalism and political participation -- and enables conservatives to participate in the political process with unprecedented ease.

Townhall.com also publishes Townhall Magazine -- fresh, conservative, intelligent reporting in a monthly magazine that is 100% exclusive to the print publication.

Poll: Voters prefer “Generic Republican” to President Obama

POSTED AT 2:30 PM ON JUNE 9, 2011 BY TINA KORBE  - HotAir

By 45 percent to 42 percent, likely U.S. voters said they would prefer a generic Republican candidate to President Barack Obama in a 2012 presidential matchup, according to a poll released this week by Rasmussen Reports. That’s the second week in a row Obama has “lost” to a faceless candidate.

Men especially want a president from the Grand Old Party — they gave the generic candidate an eight-point boost over Obama. Middle-income voters also favored the Republican. Younger voters, not surprisingly, favored the incumbent, and the vast majority — 96 percent — of black voters also supported Obama.

Importantly, though, in every Rasmussen 2012 election poll of this year, Obama has had support of no more than about 42 percent to 49 percent. As the poll summary points out, “An incumbent who earns support below 50 percent is generally considered politically vulnerable.” That impression is especially underscored by this most recent poll.

Thank you, Mr. Rasmussen, for recognizing what so few pollsters seem to: Head-to-head match-ups between Obama and specific candidates for the Republican nomination cannot possibly reflect the extent to which the voting public just might want to see a change in the White House.

True, in those one-to-one comparisons, Obama consistently edges out all the GOP potentials except for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — and that suggests voters still tend to think of Obama as more prepared for the presidency than any of the right’s primary contenders. In fact, the Rasmussen poll confirms that:

Interestingly, however, while 54 percent of voters view Obama as qualified to be president, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the only Republican 2012 hopeful that a sizable number of voters considers qualified for the White House. Forty-nine percent (49%) say Romney is qualified to be president.

But that will change when Republicans have an actual nominee. Voters will automatically start to look at that candidate as from a slightly more presidential cast.

In the meantime, the two-week trend away from Obama and toward a generic GOP-er appropriately mitigates the impression created by polls that show Obama outstripping GOP candidates who haven’t yet had a chance to make a powerful impression on the national stage.

Related: 

POLITICO ISSUES CORRECTION AFTER PALIN CAMP BASHES AUTHORS FOR ‘MAKING UP’ QUOTE

Run Sarah Run! The Left Will Go After You Anyway Because They Fear You!

Sarah Palin rolls into Washington D.C. on the back of a Harley-Davidson in the annual Rolling Thunder memorial ride.

PALIN‘S BUS DEFACED WITH ’MEDIA WHORE’ SIGN

Someone posted an unfriendly sign on Sarah Palin’s tour bus earlier today. The villain’s message, pasted directly over the words, “We the People” on a picture of the Constitution, read, “I, The Media Whore.” Gawker has more:

[the sign] was sacrilegiously placed over a monster image of the preamble to the United States Constitution for nearly 15 minutes. The bus was parked outside Fox News headquarters.

You can see some brief footage of the tour bus, complete with the mini-poster, below:

Video:  Someone put an "I, The Media Whore" Sign on Sarah Palin's Bus Outside of FOX Studios in NYC

MSNBC’s Martin Bashir:  Palin Bus Tour in “Breach of Federal Law”  -  Would someone please explain the law and freedom to this guy an point out that there is no bigger usurper of the law, the media and his office than “O”.  He obviously subscribes to  Hollywood’s leftist bias of what is right, wrong and fair:

New Stunning Audio:  Author Releases Interviews Capturing Hollywood’s Disdain for Conservatives, Including Sesame Street… brainwashing your kids!

See:  Palin Snubs, Flummoxes Media on Bus Tour  You think that is only fair considering how they have treated her and the Conservatives in general?

Why the Mainstream Media Hates Sarah Palin:  She Doesn’t Fear Them… But Rush Says The Left Fears Her!!!

Video:  Sneak Peek: Greta’s On the Road With Sarah Palin

Palin Hits pause on Bus Tour for Meeting, Dinner with Trump

This is Sarah Palin’s Epic Video Promoting Her National Bus Tour

Related:

Video:  Mama Grizzlies

Newsweek: Rush Limbaugh: GOP and Dems Both Fear Palin

Palin: Let’s Roll… Will it Be All the Way to the White House?

Palin’s Secret Weapon: New Film to Premiere in June

The 2012 Election is the GOP’s to Lose

With Friends Like Fox News Palin Is Better Off with Her Enemies

Obama Loses Women’s Support

Will 2012 be the year of America’s Woman??  It has to be the year of America’s Patriots and America’s Salvation!!

Will Ignorance Lead to a Second Obama Term??

Encourage Sarah to run and help her fight the lies from the left. This will be an ugly campaign from the Dem’s side and even from some old (elitists… like Krauthammer and Rove) republican guard! We will have to help watch the other hand for all sincere conservative and constitutional candidates!

These gals would make a great team and could win if we stop believing the media!!

Why Barack Obama May Be Headed to Lose in Landslide

Don’t let the Dem’s tell you that Barack Obama is unbeatable. Remember, Harry Truman was supposed to lose in a landslide, and he was one Hell of a better president than Obama!

THIS IS SARAH PALIN’S EPIC VIDEO PROMOTING HER NATIONAL BUS TOUR

Over the last month, 2012 presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty has grabbed people’s attention with his catch, snappy, and downright epic campaign videos. But not willing to let Pawlenty run away with the viral, epic video crown is Sarah Palin. Today, she released a dramatic video of her own to promote her national “One Nation” bus tour that might even make Chris Matthews’s leg tingle.

Don’t believe me? Let me set it up.

First, cue the dramatic, yet upbeat, music. Ok, perfect.

Next, understand that it starts with a giant bear roaring on its hind legs:

Of course, some great pics of every-day America and Americans:

Throw in some patriotic pictures:

Coupled with a picture of the tour bus:

And when you consider Palins delivering a rousing speech in the background, you got yourself an inspiring video. See for yourself below:

Video:  One Nation

Comments:

By POVERTY.SUCKS  -  Posted on May 27, 2011 at 4:17pm

She’s got Class, You Go Girl!

By CODE_ORANGE  -  Posted on May 27, 2011 at 4:34pm

O-M-G
Go Sarah Go!
PLEASE Run for President starting NOW
THANK You for Supporting Paul Ryan – ask him to be VP!

Bless You

COPPER  -  Posted on May 27, 2011 at 4:55pm

Class and conservative-ism and energy and HOPE!

Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain…any combination will work just fine for me.  Rush has given it lots of thought and believes Sarah can beat Obama. I believe any one of them can.

GO SARAH!!

By SINGERGUY  -  Posted on May 27, 2011 at 4:24pm

I can’t decide which ticket I like better: Bachmann/Palin or Palin/Bachmann. Either one would sent NOW into a conniption fit!

By AskMarion

I’m leaning toward a Palin/Bachmann or Palin/Cain ticket myself!

Additional Comments Here

Related:

Video:  Mama Grizzlies

Newsweek: Rush Limbaugh: GOP and Dems Both Fear Palin

Palin: Let’s Roll… Will it Be All the Way to the White House?

Palin’s Secret Weapon: New Film to Premiere in June

The 2012 Election is the GOP’s to Lose

Will 2012 be the year of America’s Woman??  It has to be the year of America’s Patriots and America’s Salvation!!

Palin: Let’s Roll… Will It Be All the Way to the White House?

Sarah Palin announces surprise bus tour… and what a bus. This upcoming week, Memorial Day Weekend, Sarah Palin’s “One Nation” junket may be coming to a city near you. Earlier today, SarahPAC (Palin’s political action committee) posted the following message on its site:

Sarah Palin will embark on a One Nation Tour of historical sites that were key to the formation, survival, and growth of the United States of America. The tour will originate in Washington DC and will proceed north up the east coast.  More information will follow. Please follow the tour on SarahPAC.com.

Rather vague, but intriguing none-the-less. The bus she’ll be traveling on (pictured above), includes the words “One Nation Under God, Indivisible, With Liberty & Justice For All.” According to Politico, Palin is scheduled to stop ”…at the Civil War battlefields at Gettysburg and Antietam, and the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia.”

The Huffington Post has more:

Palin will kick things off Sunday by taking part in the “Rolling Thunder” motorcycle ride – comprised mainly of U.S. war veterans from the Vietnam War – that begins at the Pentagon and concludes at the Vietnam Memorial on the National Mall.

Planning for the trip kicked into high gear only a short while ago. Palin has rehired two former advance aides to President George W. Bush, Doug McMarlin and Jason Recher, to plan the trip and execute logistics. The details of where the 2008 vice presidential nominee will go remain fluid, and have been closely held within Palin’s small world of trusted advisers.

This, teamed with the upcoming release of her feature-length film, seems to point to a potential presidential run. Coincidentally, Gallup released results today that show Palin and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney at the head of the Republican pack:

Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans‘ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee.

Palin also just purchased a new house in North Scottsdale, Arizona so she would have a base in the lower 48 bringing up the question of either a Senate or a Presidential run in 2012.

Then on Greta’s Show last night, her guest Rush Limbaugh when asked who he thought Obama was most afraid of to run against said, “Sarah Palin!”, and that all this negativity about Palin including the myth that she couldn’t win was being put out by the left because they feared her.

Most believe that this bus tour is an exploratory tour before a possible presidential run announcement.  If you’d like to see her run and the bus is coming to a city near you, it would be a great Memorial Day Weekend activity.

h/t to the Blaze

America by Heart

Will she or won't she? Palin shakes up 2012 race without entering it: http://bit.ly/lSutNG

Newsweek: Rush Limbaugh: GOP and Dems Both Fear Palin

Palin's Secret Weapon: New Film to Premiere in June

Just when they thought they had destroyed her for good comes this…  An epic Sarah Palin documentary will premiere next month… In Iowa.

Real Clear Politics reported last night on a new Sarah Palin film that will be releases next month in Iowa.

By Scott Conroy

Shortly after Republicans swept last November to a historic victory in which Sarah Palin was credited with playing a central role, the former Alaska governor pulled aside her close aide, Rebecca Mansour, to discuss a hush-hush assignment: Reach out to conservative filmmaker Stephen K. Bannon with a request. Ask him if he would make a series of videos extolling Palin’s governorship and laying to rest lingering questions about her controversial decision to resign from office with a year-and-a-half left in her first term. It was this abdication, Palin knew, that had made her damaged goods in the eyes of some Republicans who once were eager to get behind her potential 2012 presidential campaign.

The response was more positive than Palin could have hoped for. He’d make a feature-length movie, Bannon told Mansour, and he insisted upon taking complete control and financing it himself — to the tune of $1 million.

The fruits of that initial conversation are now complete. The result is a two-hour-long, sweeping epic, a rough cut of which Bannon screened privately for Sarah and Todd Palin last Wednesday in Arizona, where Alaska’s most famous couple has been rumored to have purchased a new home. When it premieres in Iowa next month, the film is poised to serve as a galvanizing prelude to Palin’s prospective presidential campaign — an unconventional reintroduction to the nation that she and her political team have spent months eagerly anticipating, even as Beltway Republicans have largely concluded that she won’t run.

Bannon, a former naval officer and ex-Goldman Sachs banker, sees his documentary as the first step in Palin’s effort to rebuild her image in the eyes of voters who may have soured on her, yet might reconsider if old caricatures begin to fade. The film will also appeal to staunch Palin supporters who have long celebrated her biting rhetoric and conservative populism yet know little about her record in Alaska and have perhaps written her off as presidential material.

“This film is a call to action for a campaign like 1976: Reagan vs. the establishment,” Bannon told RealClearPolitics. “Let’s have a good old-fashioned brouhaha.”

RealClearPolitics was recently given an exclusive screening of a rough cut of the now finished film, which Bannon designed, in part, to help catapult Palin from the presidential afterthought she has become in the eyes of many pundits directly to the front lines of the 2012 GOP conversation.

Palin initially learned about Bannon's work after she saw one of his previous films about the origins of the tea party movement, "Generation Zero," which premiered last year in Nashville and was later aired in prime time on the Fox News Channel. Impressed, Palin promoted "Generation Zero" via Twitter before later reaching out to Bannon about creating something to highlight her record in Alaska, where her performance in office was overshadowed by her resignation eight months after the 2008 presidential election.

Though she did not have any editorial role in the project, Palin facilitated access for Bannon and his film crew to key Alaskan defenders who were involved with the major achievements of her administration, and the filmmaker spent several weeks in the 49th state gathering archival film and conducting research and interviews for the project. He and his team took extraordinary measures to keep their endeavor secret.

When they requested from Alaska's TV news stations footage that was shot during Palin's political rise, they asked for additional tapes containing subject matters that were irrelevant to their project, in order not to raise suspicions. And rather than staying at the well-appointed Hotel Captain Cook in Anchorage, they instead took up temporary residence in low-key motels.

"We shot on the weekends, and we shot in locations that weren't being used during those weekends," Bannon said. "I did it with a handpicked crew of people I know and trust, and we were able to stay under the radar. The planning for the secrecy of this took many, many weeks."

Bannon originally titled his film "Take a Stand," which was the campaign slogan for Palin's 2006 gubernatorial run when she defeated incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski in the primary before cruising in the general election to become Alaska's youngest -- and first female -- chief executive. But in order to give it a more triumphant punch, the filmmaker changed the title to "The Undefeated."

Bannon acquired the audio rights to Palin's 2009 bestseller, "Going Rogue," and the former vice-presidential nominee's voice guides the film through the various stages of her career in Alaska.

Although Palin is not interviewed directly, the film features on-camera interviews and commentaries from 10 Alaskans who played different roles in her political rise, as well as six Lower 48 denizens who defend her in more visceral terms, including prominent conservative firebrands Mark Levin, Andrew Breitbart and Tammy Bruce.

Divided into three acts, the film makes the case that despite the now cliched label, Palin was indeed a maverick who confronted the powerful forces lined up against her to achieve wide-ranging success in a short period of time. The second part of the film's message is just as clear, if more subjective: that Sarah Palin is the only conservative leader who can both build on the legacy of the Reagan Revolution and bring the ideals of the tea party movement to the Oval Office.

Rife with religious metaphor and unmistakable allusions to Palin as a Joan of Arc-like figure, "The Undefeated" echoes Palin's "Going Rogue" in its tidy division of the world between the heroes who are on her side and the villains who seek to thwart her at every turn.

To convey Bannon's view of the pathology behind Palin-hatred, the film begins with a fast-paced sequence of clips showing some of the prominent celebrities who have used sexist, derogatory and generally vicious language to describe her.

Rosie O'Donnell, Matt Damon, Bill Maher, David Letterman, and Howard Stern all have brief cameos before comedian Louis C.K. goes off on a particularly ugly anti-Palin riff.

"I hate her more than anybody," C.K. says at the end of his tirade, the rest of which is unfit to print here.

Bannon intends to release two versions of the film. An unrated edition will contain some obscene anti-Palin language and imagery, while the other is targeted to a general audience and will seek a PG-13 rating from the Motion Picture Association of America.

The Making of a Politician

After a brief interlude featuring some old Palin family home video footage, Act 1 begins with Sarah as narrator, recalling the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989, when she was a young pregnant wife married to a blue-collar husband working on the North Slope.

"I hadn't yet envisioned running for elected office," Palin says in the audio taken from "Going Rogue," as images of the environmental disaster unfold on the screen. "But looking back, I could see that tragedy planted a seed in me. If I ever had a chance to serve my fellow citizens, I would do so."

Over the next hour, the crux of the narrative is taken over by Palin's Alaska backers, with former spokesperson Meg Stapleton and attorney Tom Van Flein leading the charge. Other more unfamiliar faces who uphold Palin's Alaska legacy include former Wasilla Deputy Mayor Judy Patrick, former gas pipeline adviser Marty Rutherford, longtime confidantes Kristan Cole and Judy Patrick, and former state Sen. Gene Therriault -- one of the few Alaska legislators who has remained vocal and consistent in his praise of Palin.

The recounting of Palin's earliest years in public office relies on a treasure trove of rare and never-before-seen video obtained by Bannon, including shots of Palin breaking ground on a construction project with her fellow Wasilla City Councilors, waving signs for her mayoral reelection campaign, and reacting acidly to a comment made by John Stein -- her predecessor in the mayor's office and one of the film's villains, who compared her to a "Spice Girl."

As the documentary transitions to Palin's ascent to statewide office, it dramatizes the culture of corruption that permeated Alaska, with images of fat men smoking cigars in dark rooms and the infamous Suite 604 at the Baranof Hotel in Juneau, where the FBI secretly videotaped executives of the oil services company VECO in a corruption scandal that would shake the foundations of Alaska government just as Palin was making a name for herself as an ethics crusader.

"The Undefeated" conveys the dramatic extent to which Palin's world has changed in just a few years, as it shows her announcing her gubernatorial campaign not at a massive rally but at a sparsely attended press conference in her kitchen. Those unfamiliar with Palin's political background will be surprised to learn that the woman who has become one of the nation's most boisterous press critics was once such a media darling that two of the Alaska TV news correspondents whose highly favorable reports are shown in the film ended up leaving their jobs to join the Palin administration.

Palin's charisma has in recent years often been overshadowed by the more unforgiving side of her personality, but one scene from the film illustrates how she has long used her personal charm to disarm and discombobulate her competitors.

"Oh, this will be fun," Palin says to her soon-to-be vanquished Democratic gubernatorial opponent, Tony Knowles, during a brief encounter in Anchorage on primary night in 2006. Knowles remains speechless, while Palin smiles and adds an "Oh, golly" for good measure.

Mining the ‘Maverick' Label

Palin's stint as a hard-charging reformer in Juneau won her approval ratings that consistently topped 80 percent and made her the most popular governor in America, catching the eye of the McCain campaign. It was the "maverick" label that piqued McCain's interest in 2008 -- far more than Palin's supposed purity on social issues -- just as it does the filmmaker's.

The movie focuses on Palin's triumphs on fiscal and energy matters, while ignoring hot-button topics like abortion. Indeed, although she was always identified as a staunch social conservative, Palin often worked more closely with Democrats than Republicans in Juneau and largely avoided ideological fights during her first two years in office.

Yet Palin the Fighter is an ever-present theme in the documentary; one of its most memorable moments occurs when Meg Stapleton recalls an encounter at the Fairbanks airport when Palin literally stared down an oil executive who told her, "You don't know who you're messing with."

The film's third act puts a positive spin on Palin's 2008 vice presidential run, reminding viewers of her initially valuable impact on the McCain campaign by showing the Gallup poll trend lines that had the Republican ticket taking its first lead over the Democrats before the collapse of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15.

It also gives an extended treatment to Palin's speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., her finest hour politically.

"The Undefeated" eschews less flattering topics, such as the Troopergate saga -- which had little effect on the VP campaign but left a lastingly negative impression of Palin in the eyes of many Alaskans -- and her unimpressive series of interviews with Katie Couric.

Bannon dramatizes the theme of Palin's persecution at the hands of her enemies in the media and both political parties, a notion the former governor has long embraced. Images of lions killing a zebra and a dead medieval soldier with an arrow sticking in his back dramatize the ethics complaints filed by obscure Alaskan citizens, which Palin has cited as the primary reason for her sudden resignation in July of 2009.

Fighting Words

The film's coda is introduced with an on-screen caption that reads, "From here, I can see November." It is here that Mark Levin alludes to Ronald Reagan as a Palin-like insurgent who was also once distrusted by the GOP establishment.

Palin is then shown firing up a rally that occurred just last month on the steps of the state capitol in Wisconsin. "What we need is for you to stand up, GOP, and fight," Palin, in vintage campaign form, shouts to the crowd. "Maybe I should ask some of the Badger women's hockey team -- those champions -- maybe I should ask them if we should be suggesting to GOP leaders they need to learn how to fight like a girl!"

Following an extended in-your-face riff by Andrew Breitbart in which he repeatedly denounces as "eunuchs" the male Republican leaders who decline to defend Palin, the film ends with one last scene from the April rally in Madison: "Mr. President, game on!" Palin shouts before a martial drumbeat ushers in a closing quotation by Thomas Paine, which also appeared in "Going Rogue." The implication is neither subtle nor easy to dismiss.

In a telling sign of how the film's message has already resonated with her own thought process, Palin made reference to the Paine quotation during an appearance on Greta Van Susteren's Fox News show last week shortly after she viewed a rough cut of the film for the first time.

"It's like Thomas Paine said, Greta, one of our founders. He said, ‘If there be trouble, let it be in my day that my child may have peace,'" Palin said. "I think of that when I consider whether running for office or not."

SarahPAC's treasurer Tim Crawford confirmed that "The Undefeated" was a hit with Palin.

"The governor thought it was great," Crawford said.

Bannon's film also resonated with members of Palin's staff, including Mansour.

"I'm a huge fan of Steve's work," Mansour said in a statement to RCP on Tuesday. "His film on President Reagan, ‘In the Face of Evil,' is my favorite documentary, and his ‘Generation Zero' was a rallying cry for the Tea Party movement early on. I think his new film really captures the essence of Governor Palin's stewardship of Alaska, and I think people will be really surprised by it. It shatters so many false stereotypes because it shows what she actually accomplished as governor. You can't leave it thinking the same way about Sarah Palin."

In the last couple of months, Palin has delivered major policy speeches, hired a chief of staff, made a well-publicized foreign trip that included a visit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, all the while remaining consistent about her vow -- first made just days after the 2008 campaign ended -- that she would "crash through" any of the "open doors" that might lead to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Bannon intends to premiere the film in Iowa late next month before expanding the release to New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. After the initial rollout in the four early voting states, the filmmaker will eventually release it to somewhere between 50 and 100 markets nationwide.

Palin aides have not yet decided whether the former governor will play an active role in the film's premiere, but there has been some preliminary discussion of purchasing copies of the film from Bannon to distribute as gifts to SarahPAC donors.

Bannon is also working out a video-on-demand deal that will make the movie more widely accessible.

Palin has been tight-lipped about which way she is leaning in regard to running for president next year, but her team of advisers is operating under the notion that they are laying the groundwork for a future campaign, until they are told otherwise.

Palin's future presidential bid might be based in the Phoenix area -- where Bristol Palin also recently purchased a new home -- but Palin's aides have yet to reach out to potential venues for a campaign headquarters in Arizona.

Despite Palin's apparent desire to wait as long as possible before making her decision, aides acknowledge that they will soon have to establish a more campaign-like operation in order to begin a more concerted effort to raise money and take other steps that would be required -- even for a potential candidate as unconventional as Palin.

Meanwhile, the news about Palin's initial effort to commission a film project to highlight her political record is sure to put additional pressure on Fox News to demand an answer from one of their star contributors on whether she intends to run for president or continue working as a political analyst on the network that may soon find itself reporting on her campaign.

Palin and her aides have appeared to recognize that despite some recent polls showing her near the top of the prospective Republican field, she still has substantial problems with independent voters and large swaths of the GOP. Even more daunting will be finding a way to explain persuasively just how it was that ethics complainers and liberal bloggers -- whom other politicians in her shoes might have largely dismissed as relatively minor nuisances -- succeeded in forcing her out of office.

But coming on the heels of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's decision not to join the fray, many grassroots conservatives are clamoring for a candidate who has both the stature and the sizzle to compete with President Obama.

If she does decide to run, "The Undefeated" will be the key element to her initial coming-out party. The film's impending release -- and the frenzied media attention that it is sure to generate -- will serve as a vivid wake-up call that despite the many obstacles in front of her, Palin's entry into the race would turn the campaign on its head in an instant, just as it did in 2008.

As she mulls her decision in the coming weeks, the other Republican candidates in the field will be left to prepare for a hibernating grizzly who appears poised to rise up once again.

Scott Conroy is a national political reporter for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at sconroy@realclearpolitics.com.

Related:

The 2012 Election is the GOP’s to Lose

One thing you can bet on is that creeps and leftist Media Matter sponsored minions will continue to attach Sarah Palin if she runs and if she doesn’t.  The last two nights Sean Hannity has had clips of his interview with former Palin staffer, Frank Bailey, who worked for her for years and now that his has a book deal and is probably getting paid by Soros (indirectly) has written a new so-called tell-all trashing his former boss and friend.  Sean Hannity did a great job giving him what for and we need to do exactly the same thing by keeping and open mind and really considering the source of these types of attacks.  Video:  Hannity Challenges Author of Sarah Palin Tell-All – part 1

America by Heart

The Undefeated

Sean Hannity has an exclusive sneak peek of  The Undefeated

The 2012 Election is the GOP’s To Lose

Why do we allow ourselves to believe that these gals can’t win?  Or that a West-Cain ticket wouldn’t fly?  Some combination of those 4 is a winning ticket for the GOP in 2012 if we stop allowing the leftist mainstream media to convince us to go against our convictions, against our gut feelings, and against the honest polls and what we know is true and right.  I also heard someone suggest Ron Paul for head of the Fed with the power to dismantle it and John Bolton for Secretary of State.  Why not?

The Battleground Poll just published, confirmed that conservatives are the overwhelming majority in America, a stat that has been consistent for over a decade.  When asked to define their own ideological position, 57% called themselves "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative," while only 37% called themselves "very liberal" or "somewhat liberal."  The tiny smidgen of Americans who were either "unsure" or "moderate" or "refused to answer" was 5%.   And this polling holds across the board.

An Associated Press-Ipsos Poll in early 2007 asked respondents to identify themselves ideologically.  Conservatives were, by far, the largest group with 41% of respondents calling themselves "conservative," while only 21% of respondents called themselves "liberal" and 34% called themselves "moderates."  And even more amazing is the fact that even polling organizations which try to make conservatives appear as small a number as possible fail when the ideological preference question is asked directly. It only changes when the polls are manipulated or the question is purposely confusing.

So why have we allowed ourselves to be silent… silenced… and intimidated or even brainwashed into believing that our thoughts and our preferred candidates can’t prevail?  We are being led by the nose to believe the perverse illusion of the left (like from this Jackass:  Maher) that is being peddled to us and our children by a leftist co-opted educational system and  puppet media which includes the mainstream news cycle, movies, TV, and much of the print world. Talk radio and the Internet are our best chance for the truth and the left is actively working to control and limit freedom from those sources.

This past week was a busy week for the GOP: Huck’s out?  Trump’s out? Newt’s in but has already shot himself in the foot? Pawlenty is in, announced on YouTube! Cain’s in with a message of ‘Yes We Can"’! Bachmann seems near announcing even though she originally said she’ll decide by June and Romney had a great fund raiser.  Huntsman seems more serious by the day and Palin told Greta that she feels the call in her belly, plus we are hearing that she has bought a new home in Arizona, putting her down in the lower 48 for the campaign.  And now we hear that there are rumblings from Perry in Texas.  Ron Paul is already in and we are also waiting on a definite Yeah or Nay from Rick Santorum.

According to Dick Morris now that two of the top three candidates. according to his survey, for the Republican nomination have pulled out of the race, the big winner is the one candidate left standing: Mitt Romney.  By his analysis and polling before Huckabee and Trump pulled out, the stats were Romney-22, Huckabee-20, Trump-15, Gingrich-11, Palin-9, Bachmann-6, Pawlenty-3, and Daniels-2… who just announced (Sun 05.22) he was not running via email to his supporters.

This writer questions the Morris numbers and Hot Air has been running an ongoing poll since November of 2010 (see graphs below), which consistently shows Palin ahead even though she hasn’t committed to running and in spite of the media having tried to crucify her for 3-years now. And Cain has just made a major jump.  I can tell you that in my circle, Palin is the top choice as well;  Cain, West who is not on their chart and still says he won’t run, and Bachmann come next and then Romney and Huntsman… now that Huckabee and Trump are out.

Suffolk University Poll, which just came in, shows Romney and Palin Both Getting a Boost after the Trump and Huckabee News.

There are also some draft movements underway for several possible candidates including: Gen Petraeus, Chris Christy, Jeb Bush, Rick Perry, and Allen West plus the wait for the final Yeah or Nay from Sarah Palin.  And there are rumblings about Marco Rubio for VP.

The biggest thing Conservatives, moderates and independents need to remember and focus on is that the end goal is defeating Obama and his progressive cronies.  The Dems will do what they can to discredit, smear and distort information about the GOP candidates and take the focus off the issues, or distort the truth about them.  It has already begun like in this video about the GOP and Medicare.   Look at the lies they have spread about Palin and her family and the unsavory tactics that they have resorted to.  As Palin says on the 'Lamestream Media: It's Gotcha Trip-Up Questions and You Have to Be Prepared'.  The Dems are already using Newt against the Republicans.  We and the candidates need to stop ripping each other apart, giving the Dems more to work with, because in the end we need to be able to stand together and with whomever ends up being the GOP’s candidate to defeat Obama in 2012… otherwise there just not be anything left in 2016 t0 fight for!

We need to educate ourselves and then pass along the information and the truth.  We need to demand that the conversation and focus stay on the issues and what is relative about the candidates, but leave their families alone.  And we must not allow the media to fill us and less educated voters with distortions and lies.  We must also be willing to do the work to help with the campaigns and to monitor the elections and demand recounts if necessary… until it is right.  Voter fraud and intimidation and campaign fraud will be an issue in this election from the left, starting from the top!  We had in preview in the last two elections. One of the greatest questions about this election is: Will Ignorance and Laziness Lead to a Second Obama Term?? 

Obama can be defeated and ‘his list of negatives’ beginning with his record on the economy, is long.  2012 and the future of America as we know it is the GOP’s… a coalition of conservatives, moderates, independents, Tea Party members, patriots, traditional Republicans, Libertarians and disillusioned Democrats to win or lose.

The race and fight is on… don’t be an observer and wonder what happened!

Hot Air Candidate Survey - May Edition: Next month’s full-sized survey should be very, very interesting, and that’s assuming no other candidates leave or join the field.  Keep in mind this graph was a Friday vote, so the volume’s a good deal lower than usual. That said, the results:

For the most part the candidates’ approval levels have remained fairly stable when compared to last month.

Different story on the overall vote front, though. The biggest pop in support? Herman Cain, whose support had remained mostly unchanged at Hot Air over the last few months.

Questions? Comments? I haven’t laid out all the data here since, amazingly, some of it’s already out-dated, so if you’re interested in a cross-tab,  tweet me.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.  To see the comments on the original post, look here.

The Real Conservative Majority

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Republican 2012 hopefuls blast President Obama on Israel

Gary Johnson Loses Willie Nelson Endorsement

Huntsman Affirms Mormon Heritage  -  After Obama’s questionable record on religion and the ever growing question in the minds of an increasing number of American’s wondering whether Obama is essentially an atheist, an opportunist, a follower of Rev Wright’s Black Liberation Theology or Christian Socialism (based in Marxism, racism against the “White oppressor” and social justice seeing Jesus as a liberator rather than a redeemer of all) or in the minds of an ever growing number of Americans… a Muslim, it seems that being a Mormon should be a non-issue and less of a problem for Huntsman than his stand on global warming or for Romney than his need to justify his stance against ObamaCare in the light of RomneyCare.

Huckabee: Romney Is 'Inauthentic'  - But he's still willing to support Romney if he becomes the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.

Fighting for, supporting and working for the nominee and team we want is every American who does not want 4-more years or Obama’s job and responsibility, but like Huckabee, supporting whomever the final Republican presidential candidate for 2012 turns out to be is essential for America!

Related:

White House Insider:  Trump Was Threatened  Seems it is the same insider who leaked info on the Blago Trial?!?

College Student Diving Into Deep End of Political Pool

Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now!

By Marion Algier – Ask Marion