Is It Time for Conservatives, Moderates, Independents and the GOP to Come Together? Especially After Super Tuesday?

Charles Krauthammer says, “The long primary process has ‘Diminished’ the GOP Brand”

In a recent interview:

Megyn Kelly, FOX News: Charles, a lot of Republican voters have been uncomfortable watching this primary contest so far with all the barbs being exchanged between the candidates and in Michigan, as we've seen in some of the earlier states, it got a little ugly in the end. Your take now at this point in the process on whether this extended primary process that was a choice by the GOP is working to the GOP's advantage?

Charles Krauthammer: No. I think it's hurting them terribly. And you're right about the fact that it is a Republican choice. And I think it was a really stupid choice. They decided that in 2008 they had gotten a candidate too early. A weak candidate in McCain and they got slaughtered. So they were going to undo that and have a long, drawn out process. Almost all the contests would be proportional, and let the voters decide over time.
The flaw in the reasoning, and it was pretty obvious, they'd be running against an incumbent president, unlike in 2008. The Democrats would not have any early contests. They wouldn't have any negativity. They wouldn't have all this expenditure in trying to decide who is going to be the nominee.

So they should have had a shorter race, but they designed it for a longer race in a year in which the Democrats have no race at all and therefore have an advantage. Nonetheless, I think the way Obama has performed as president is so disappointing that that will even out, and I think it is now an even contest between Democrats and Republicans as to the general election. But, it shouldn't be. Republicans should be way ahead, given how badly Obama has done and how weak the economy is. But this process has certainly hurt all the Republican candidates, and unfortunately diminished the brand.

The case for Mitt Romney

There are an awful lot of "true conservative" types dumping on Mitt Romney these days... some are saying that he is no better than Obama, and some are even threatening to not vote if Romney is the nominee. I don't get it... I know that Romney isn't perfect, but I don't understand the hatred of him.

Here was Mark Levin in 2008 arguing that Romney was the most conservative choice:

Let’s face it, none of the candidates are perfect. They never are. But McCain is the least perfect of the viable candidates. The only one left standing who can honestly be said to share most of our conservative principles is Mitt Romney. I say this as someone who has not been an active Romney supporter. If conservatives don’t unite behind Romney at this stage, and become vocal in their support for him, then they will get McCain as their Republican nominee and probably a Democrat president. And in either case, we will have a deeply flawed president.

Of course that was before Levin suddenly decided to hate Romney's guts. In 2008 he was calling Romney a conservative... maybe an imperfect conservative, but still a conservative. And now Romney is some sort of ultra-liberal who should be hated like poison?
Well, I don't see any perfect conservatives this time around either. I initially supported Rick Perry, but he just wasn't able to sell himself... so now that Perry is gone, Romney has become my second choice. Who else am I supposed to vote for? Rick Santorum may yet win the nomination, and I will vote for him if he does, but I don't see how he could possibly beat Obama in the general election. (I don't think that Newt Gingrich could beat Obama either, but I don't see him winning the nomination at this point anyway, so the question is probably moot.)

As our nominee, Mitt Romney would keep the focus on Obama's failed policies... Romneycare is a problem for Romney, but not an insurmountable one. I think Romney will do a much better job of exposing Obama as a radical leftist than Santorum ever could, mainly because Santorum is too eager to let himself get lured into lecturing us about things like Satan, sodomy, pornography, contraception, and whether or not Protestants are real Christians.

I've been fairly impressed with Mitt Romney's performance in the debates so far, and I think he would do just fine against Obama... but you don't have to take my word for it, here is Santorum himself endorsing Mitt Romney in 2008:

Posted by Crazy Bald Guy – Cross-Posted to the Watchers Council

Romney is a much more generous, outgoing, personable and relatable in person than he appears in debates or on TV.  He also does not toot his own horn as do both Obama and Gingrich… who love to toot theirs.  In one of the debates Romney said he did not inherit his money, that he is a self-made man and that is true.  What he didn’t tell us is that he did inherit money from his parents and gave it all away in their honor.  He gave much of it to develop the George Romney Management Institute at BYU and the rest to charity.

Romney also took no salary when he was the Governor of Massachusetts.

And because Romney does not sound his own horn and is steady and calm instead of boastful and grandiose a lot of people like to say that he isn’t tough enough and doesn’t show enough feelings. You really need to read this story to see another side of him.

And in the end, ROMNEY’S EDGE IS ELECTABILITY, which seems to be proving out as Romney is gaining momentum in Ohio.  In yet another bizarre twist to this roller coaster 2012 GOP Primary race, Rick Santorum's lead in Ohio has all but evaporated. What once was a double digit lead is now down to 2 points. Mitt Romney is making a late surge for the ever important electoral state of Ohio - but will it be enough to overcome Santorum? Why is Romney surging anyway? Could it be the bizarre interview of Santorum that Glenn played a portion of? See HERE.

When recently asked about a brokered convention Romney said: “That’s just not going to happen!”  However, if it does according to a Fox News online poll: Sarah Palin is the overwhelming choice if there is a brokered convention.  It would be a Game Change that many of us can believe in!

 

It is time for us to decide… Go with Romney who moderates and independents like and can vote for… or go for the real conservative who will really brings us hope and change and mesmerizes those who listen.  If you have ever heard and seen Sarah Palin speak live, especially to a large crowd, and if you really know what she has done and what she stands for…… not the Sarah Palin that Katie Couric, Tina Fey and the Progressive left have fed us… you know that she could win, if any true conservative can win!

Conservative Super Star Sarah Palin: Brought the Red Meat to CPAC and They Loved It… Loved Her!

Video: Full Speech – Sarah Palin at CPAC 2012

Video: Game Change We Can Believe In

But perhaps in honor of the memory of a man who many called the the spiritual leader of the modern conservative, libertarian movement and ‘the’ conservative warrior by others, Andrew Breitbart, we should consider his words as he warned at CPAC:  "Unite or Perish!"  Or we draft the gal that will bring us real change and excites the conservative base… especially with his recent wins.  Why settle for Sarah light?

Strategist and author Dick Morris said, if there ever was a reason to pull together and vote for Romney, unless you are hoping for a brokered convention, it is the Michigan experience of last weekend.  Romney won by a large margin in both Arizona and with a large margin of Republicans and Independents in Michigan.  But 100,000 Democrats voted in Michigan against Romney, on cue from a combination of a robot call put out by the Santorum campaign and a movement organized by Team Obama (of unions and operatives).

Morris says if Democrats, Team Obama, start interfering and trying to change the outcome of the GOP primary to their preference, Rick Santorum, at least in this case, it tells us who they fear to run against most, Mitt Romney. And if the GOP lets this go beyond May or June without a clear chosen candidate, and worse yet all the way until September, after the Republican convention, Obama will win a second term. The GOP will not have enough time to mount a campaign against Obama between September 1st and  November 6th… and Team Obama knows that!

Wake-up, America… eyes on the price, which is defeating Obama. After Super Tuesday, if not before, unless there is a miracle and someone breaks out, if Santorum and Gingrich split the south and Romney takes  the rest or most, it is time to pull together or we will end up out foxing ourselves into losing our country because we played the wrong game for too long.

*Since this was originally written Mitt Romney won in Washington state (today) on Saturday, with Ron Paul coming in at second.  (It was considered Paul’s best shot at a first place win.) In the post election analysis, Charles Krauthammer said if Santorum and Gingrich have a weak showing on Super Tuesday, the Republican Establishment will start putting pressure on them to step aside, at least one of them, because they are damaging the GOP brand and are harming the outcome of the bigger goal… beating President Obama in the Fall.  Mitt Romney also appears to have had his best debate/forum performance ever on Saturday night from Wilmington, Ohio sponsored by and featured on Huckabee. 

Mitt had a very personal and relatable moment with small business owner David McArthur from St. Louis, when he talked about his son. Romney was outwardly emotional during his response to a question from McArthur who is the father of a soldier experiencing Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and a traumatic brain injury after being wounded in Afghanistan.  Governor Romney was obviously very moved by David’s story and clearly grateful for the sacrifice; Romney’s voice broke, crackling for a moment, as he responded. It was a great chance for people to see Romney’s humanity at a time when many voters say they have been unable to connect with him.  Mitt also did a great job of more clearly explaining his detailed economic plan and was even funny during the forum… when he forgot to leave the stage for the next candidate, Santorum, to come on and give his final comments.  Romney laughed, lightly grabbing Santorum at the shoulders saying, “I’m not leaving!”. (All three candidates did well at the Huckabee Forum, focusing on jobs… Ron Paul opted not to continue campaigning in Washington State and not to participate in the forum, but Romney definitely came out on top!)

Final GOP Debate Before Super Tuesday and 3 Other Primaries - Updated

The CNN Arizona Debate is over and so are the GOP debates until after Super Tuesday, after about 14-additional primaries are over.

As with all of the debates, there were winners and losers. Who won, who lost and what’s next?

Debate Video: Republican Presidential Debate (CNN/Arizona Republican Party) - February 22 2012

Video:  Highlights From CNN  GOP Debate in Arizona

Debate Transcript

First the winners.

Whether Mitt or Newt won depends on who you listen to.

Gingrich  was in top form tonight and was able to hold the position he loves to operate from. He was able to swoop in on certain questions and do really well, answering in a sly superior fashion. If Newt had nights like this in every debate, he would be much closer to being the nominee.  Newt probably built up his vote share last night with his quips and insight, but every vote he gets back comes from Santorum not from Romney.

Mitt Romney also fell into the winner circle. Romney is not as good a debater as Newt but was prepared. Preparation can overcome a multitude of sins and what ever else you want to say about Romney, he does prepare well for debates, plus he is getting better at it.  One of Romney’s advantages is that he comes across as presidential.

Former Clinton political advisor (now a Republican) and author Dick Morris wrote:

In last night's debate, Romney showed how he has grown through this contest and has developed into a presidential figure.  By contrast, Santorum's performance was distinctly congressional.  I found myself agreeing with Santorum on much of what he said, but willing to follow Romney.  In sync with Rick, but trusting

Mitt.Santorum's replies were pedantic, tactical, and detailed. No inspiration there.  He was like a lawyer advocating his case or a congressman battling for a bill.  But Romney came across as a real leader - charismatic, bold, strong, and, ultimately, inspiring.  See his full post HERE.

Ron Paul could have been a winner if he could have stayed away from foreign policy issues. Foreign policy, specifically Iran, is his Achilles heel. Iran is a threat to America. Radical Islam is a threat to America. We are not threatening Iran. Iran is threatening America and Israel; the big and little Satans as they call us. Ron did have some humorous moments last night. And what I do agree with Ron Paul on is that we need to formally declare wars before entering into them!

CNN is a winner too. CNN did not hit any of the Republicans with any really bad gotcha questions and the really stupid questions, like describe yourself with one word, were kept to a minimum.

The Republican Party, with twenty some debates has also scored big with the Debates. They have been a big draw for the networks that have carried them so have been a good showcase for all of the Republican candidates. A year ago, who would have believed we would have had this many debates?

The losers:

Rick Santorum. Santorum needed a knock out punch today to beat Romney. He did not get it. He stumbled. Not only did he not get his knock out punch, he was back on his heels most of the debate. He stumbled and fumbled in dealing with all of the candidates. Santorum did not have the worst debate performance ever. He did not forget which departments he would abolish. But his performance was not one of his best nights.

If Santorum had delivered with some of the strong points he had in previous debates he might have continued doing better going into Michigan and Arizona. This debate could have the same consequences as did the bad debates for Gingrich in Florida.

The Republican Establishment is also a loser of sorts. For years they have allowed the liberal media to call the shots on their debates. The Republican mainstream voters are tired of it. Blogs ranging from the Tea Party Nation to Red State and on have called the GOP establishment on this; even the National Review addressed this today.

Santorum started with momentum tonight, but he needed to have a debate strategy. Romney had  his debate strategy down. He was going to get in someone’s face and push them back on their heels. Gingrich was in his preferred position and he had the strategy of being the Republican wise man, which he pulled off well and relished in.  And Ron Paul was his independent self and really went after Santorum.

Santorum seemed to have no strategy other than to just showing up, and neither he nor Newt came across as presidential

We will know in the next few days how badly this debate hurt Santorum, since the voters have been so fickle this primary season. One thing is certain. Romney can probably breathe a little easier tonight and the polls in Michigan should keep tightening.  Donald Trump appeared with Greta on the Record after the debate and Trump said he just saw that Romney have pulled into the lead in Michigan where Santorum had been leading.  If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona he has a decided advantage on Super Tuesday. 

The outcome of the upcoming primaries may shift the entire ebb and flow of the GOP race again and could end the talk of a brokered convention, one of the ongoing side stories in this roller coaster of a race.  Some feel it could be the best thing that ever happened to the GOP, but most feel it would be a nightmare.  And some still think there could be surprises ahead on both sides.

But if the American people don’t wake up as to the importance of this election… America and everyone in it is the loser.  Only 4.5 million people watched last night’s debate, in probably the most important election of all our life times.  That is a travesty!  And truly if you are not paying attention you are not equipped to vote!

Another side story is the question of whether Ron Paul has been keeping his Mitts off Mitt in order to get his son, Rand, on the ticket?  Ron or Rand Paul will at least get a speaking position and input at the convention if Ron keeps picking up delegates.

Like Father Like Son?  Maybe but smoother around the edges?

Many feel it’s all coming down to this: Ron Paul is staying in this race, no matter what, in order to assist Romney, because he wants his son to be on the Presidential ticket with Mitt Romney.

As he travels around stumping on the basis of his limited government position, he is also fishing to get his son on the ticket with another candidate in this race.  In tonight’s debate on CNN, the elder Paul had every chance to criticize Romney, but he didn’t, and instead spent his time hammering Santorum. Coincidence???

I like many of the things Ron Paul stands for in the domestic arena, but can the younger Paul effect policy changes as part of the Romney team, or will virtually none of Ron Paul’s positions be adopted in the end?  It could be interesting if they can pull it off!  As they say, politics make strange bedfellows and Romney’s presidency would be the antithesis of much of what Ron Paul has advocated.

At the conclusion of the debate on CNN, Anderson Cooper came on as the stage emptied of the candidates, and I watched with interest as Mitt Romney got up and directly went to shake Ron Paul’s hand and exchange a few words with him.

This is definitely season full of surprises!

Related:

BREAKING: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept The GOP Nomination if Drafted?

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Expect Costly Lawsuits With Voter Photo ID Says ACLU of MN

Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Conservative Super Star Sarah Palin: Brought the Red Meat to CPAC and They Loved It… Loved Her!

Audio:  Santorum’s Right on Religion - Religious Liberty… ObamaCare’s First Casualty

Rubio’s Mormon Past Revealed  -  There is a definite question as to Rubio’s eligibility to be president/VP but on this issue… Obama’s father and step-father were Muslims and his mother and grandparents were progressive atheists… Obama himself, questionable and we are worried about Mormons?  Really??

Breaking: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept the GOP Nomination if Drafted?

BREAKING: Did Sarah Palin Just Announce She Would Accept The GOP Nomination if Drafted?

Oh man, what a day this has turned out to be. Sarah Palin has been all over Fox News today, including making a surprise appearance on The Five, setting between Bob Beckel and Eric Bolling, who has been teasing her appearance on his Fox Business News show Follow the Money, which brings us to what currently has everyone buzzing.

This is a supposed transcript from the interview she did with Eric, from Time Magazine:

BOLLING: Governor, a lot of people are saying it can’t happen. I don’t necessarily agree with them. If one of the nominees, one of the GOPers, doesn’t get enough delegates, it could go the a brokered convention.

If it does get to that and someone said, Governor, would you be interested, would you be interested?

PALIN: Well, for one, I think that it could get to that. And I — you know, if it had to — if it had to be kind of closed up today, the whole nominating process, then we would be looking at a brokered convention.

I mean nobody is quite there yet. So I think that months from now, if that’s the case, then, you know, all bets are off as to who it will be willing to offer themselves up in the name of service to their country. I would — I would do whatever I could to help.

BOLLING: That’s — that’s fantastic.

Putting this in the context of Sarah’s Fox interviews with Greta, the gang on Fox and Friends, and Martha MacCallum, where she is clearly displeased with how the current candidates are handling themselves, as well as going after President Obama full speed, it seems she has decided she may have to take matters into her own hand!

Of course, this could be nothing more than a huge shot across the bow of all of the campaigns, and the GOP, warning them to get their act together. Or it could be she’s been listening to all of us who wanted her to run from day one.

Of course, I’m quite biased, as I have thought she would make a great president since 2007!

It also seems Sarah may be appearing on Red Eye [with Jedediah Bila] in the wee hours of the morning! [they actually tape the show earlier] Stay up late or set your DVRs! Red Eye airs 3 AM eastern.

All I know is the next few days are going to be a bit crazy!

By Gary P Jackson

Related:

Breitbart to Conservatives Unite or Parish ht

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Conservative Super Star Sarah Palin: Brought the Red Meat to CPAC and They Loved It… Loved Her!

Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Video:  Breitbart to Conservatives: "Unite or Perish!"

Andrew Breitbart on The Victory Sessions with host Stephen K. Bannon on KABC - http://www.kabc.com/showdj.asp?DJID=59651

"Conservatives must Unite or Perish". "The Occupy Movement was created to get Obama elected.

Video: Andrew’s Unity Speech at CPAC

Earlier to day… There was tweet from Fox News’ Eric Bolling saying:

ALERT! Palin breaking big news... the 15 minutes with Gov Sarah that may change everything.. stay tuned 10p FBN

There are many people out there praying that she will still jump in!!

But whoever the GOP nominee ends up being, we better unite, sooner vs. later, or the America we knew and loved is done!

**  I just read an exclusive alert from Reuters –Exclusive: Clinton in talks about possible move to World Bank.  This is frightening because it is a possible sign that the global elite are much closer to their New Economic World Order than we wanted to believe.  There will not be a second chance to save freedom, America or turn back the clock (and definitely not in our lifetimes).  If we do not unite and put our individual preferences aside to fight like Hell to save the Country our Founders gave us between now and Election Day 2012 (if we have that long), we are done!  Please wake-up America… It is almost too late! Third parties, not voting and endless in-fighting are just not acceptable this time around… because if we take that path, there won’t be a next time around! **

Related:

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

GOP Candidates Still Swinging

A Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges…. Bush verses Palin?

Photo:  Real Clear Politics

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the 2012 primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, at the end of the primary stream. drafting their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, or ???

But as sure as Jeb Bush will be proposed, so will Sarah Palin. She is now and always has been the singular Reaganesque super-star voice in the original Tea Party phenomenon; the only one who can bring it to the mainstream. Her absence from the primary race has left a vacuum and no substitute has been found. Every other possible or potential leadership hopeful has risen and receded in this already seemingly long Republican primary season. 

All reports from the CPAC conference, the former Alaska governor received far and away the most spirited and enthusiastic reception at the convention of about 10,000 conservative activists. She drew the audience to its feet more than a dozen times during her keynote address on Saturday. “The cheers for Palin were so loud that they drowned out her remarks again and again,” he writes. “Conference organizers had to set up three overflow rooms to accommodate the throngs of supporters eager to hear her words.”

Sarah Palin bated clean-up at CPAC and hit a home run!  Her appearance reminded CPAC’s attendees how much they missed her. Palin was/is the conservative super-star.  She brought the red meat to CPAC and crowd loved it… as they loved her!  Palin repeatedly said the door was open for a conservative victory, but the door that seemed to be open the widest was the one to her political future as the leader of the conservative movement and as heiress to the Reagan legacy.  Sarah once again proved her conservative relevancy… It was her party on Saturday, and it could be for the foreseeable future. The only questions remains, could that include a place for here on the party ticket in a brokered primary?

Remember… Palin has already been there once for a dress rehearsal.

Photo: McCain Election Album 2008

Many have been adamant that the outcome of a brokered convention is extremely unlikely. For it to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa. But has anyone else noticed how often they ask Mitt Romney about this possibility?

It is looking more and more like the the GOP fight could eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario. (However, there are signs that the Romney and Paul camps may have already brokered a deal.)

Something else to remember, the GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned all to well to her sorrow in 2008.

Additionally and perhaps even more importantly, demographic and geographic splits are beginning to surface in the GOP that resemble the splits in the Democratic Party in 2008. That year, Hillary Clinton laid claim to working-class whites and Latino voters, while Barack Obama laid claim to college-educated whites and African-Americans. This divide continued throughout the primary, right up to the last day of voting.

The GOP split is still speculative at this point. But to see the possibility, examine the map of U.S. counties and how they have voted so far. Blue counties backed Romney, red backed Gingrich, green are for Santorum, while white have gone for some other candidate (or not yet voted).

Map:  Real Clear Politics

Romney has done well in New Hampshire and south Florida; the latter is basically the North transplanted to the South. This suggests continued strength in the Northeast. He’s also done well in the Mountain West: Nevada was in his camp, as was a large portion of the Western Slope of Colorado. Note also the handful of counties in southern Colorado that went for Romney; they are heavily Mexican-American, and Romney has run well with Latino voters in the GOP contests thus far.

Next, Gingrich. There is continued resistance to Mitt Romney in the GOP among evangelicals. These voters are concentrated largely, but not exclusively, in the South. And as we see, the former House speaker ran well in South Carolina as well as in northern Florida, and is expected to do well in Georgia. This caused many to conclude that Gingrich was on the verge of emerging as the definitive not-Romney.

But now we have to consider that Santorum has won Iowa and Minnesota in the Midwest, and won Colorado largely on the strength of his showing in eastern Colorado (which is basically the Great Plains). He also won Missouri -- which is culturally more southern than Midwestern -- but Gingrich wasn’t on the ballot there. For now at least, he is the "anti-Romney" in the Midwest. Santorum is getting a bit of boost from the Catholic birth control mandate issue, but some aren’t so sure about his fiscal conservatism.

If this split continues -- Romney in the West and Northeast, Gingrich in the South, and Santorum in the Midwest -- we could easily find ourselves in a scenario where no candidate crosses the 1,144-delegate threshold by the time voting ends. Consider this: Right now, Romney barely has a majority of the delegates. If Gingrich successfully contests the winner-takes-all allocation in the Florida primary (based on the RNC’s rule against such a format before April), no one would have a majority of the delegates as of today.

We will find out how viable this path is in the next few weeks. In the lead-up to Super Tuesday, we’ll probably see Romney win Arizona, Michigan and Maine. Arizona and Maine are in his demographic wheelhouse, while he is a native Michigander and his father was governor of the state (Although in a recent survey 67% of the people living in Michigan were not born or did not live in Michigan when George Romney was Governor). Washington is a coastal state, where Romney’s strength hasn’t been tested, so it is up in the air.

Super Tuesday will likely be tougher for him. Four of the five largest states -- Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia -- are Southern (or in Oklahoma's case, culturally Southern). Romney will likely win Virginia by default, but he will probably fare poorly in the remaining three. If Gingrich can stay in the race and maintain his strength in the South, he will likely win them.

On the other hand, Romney will probably do well in Massachusetts, Idaho and Vermont. Santorum seems well-positioned to win North Dakota. But let us remember, Santorum is fourth in delegates, behind Ron Paul.

So the viability of a three-way split probably comes down to Ohio, which has a fair number of evangelicals, though not to the degree that Tennessee, Oklahoma and Georgia do. Santorum has some strengths he can draw on in the Buckeye State, as his blue-collar message could play well even among Republicans there. If he wins, it means that we probably do have a deeply divided GOP, with Gingrich taking the anti-Romney vote in the South, and Santorum taking the anti-Romney vote in the Midwest.

The key is that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can begin to do so well that the other drops out. Both must remain effectively regional candidates. If Gingrich’s support collapses in the South, it might leave an opening there for Santorum. We’ve seen some potential evidence of this, as Gingrich’s support in Gallup’s tracking poll is down about seven points since the Florida primary (although it isn’t down in the wake of Santorum’s wins Tuesday night). If that were to occur, we would be back to a two-person race. There is also now word that Gingrich’s financial supporter, Adelson, has pulled out.  Most feel he will stay in the race, but that his star has faded.

Alternatively, Santorum’s support could turn out to be confined to caucus states and/or states where Romney failed to spend money. Remember, Colorado and Minnesota are small state caucuses, virtually ignored by the candidates. Santorum’s win in Minnesota was large enough, however, that it could indicate broader support among the general electorate (as was his showing in eastern Colorado). This might allow Gingrich to step in, or Romney to wrap up the nomination. But Santorum says he has a plan to beat Mitt in Michigan.

But in the event this scenario does unfold through Super Tuesday, we would then begin a long slog. But unlike 2008, where Obama’s states were frontloaded and allowed him to gain an air of inevitability early on, here the states are spread out. The remainder of March contains Northern caucuses in Wyoming and Kansas. There are Southern states: Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. At the same time, areas with heavily Latino population such as Puerto Rico, and states with relatively liberal Republican parties (Illinois) will cast their ballots. The fact that these contests award their delegates proportionately will prevent any candidate from breaking out.

In April, Gingrich would have a great chance in Texas, Maryland and Delaware (increasingly de facto Southern states in the GOP primary electorate), while Romney would receive large delegate hauls in Rhode Island, Connecticut and New York. Santorum would have primaries in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In the end, we could end up in California in early June with no clear nominee. While that state is nominally winner-take-all for a whopping 172 delegates, in fact it allocates the overwhelming majority of those delegates by Congressional District. Who is voting in a Republican primary in Nancy Pelosi’s or Maxine Waters’ district? I honestly have no idea, but if they’re different from the voters in the Latino central valley districts, and if they’re different than the voters in Orange County, and if they’re different from the voters in the Sierra districts, we really could have a situation where the state doesn’t produce a winner for the GOP.

If this occurs, and Ron Paul wins around 100 delegates along the way, we have a situation where no candidate has more than 900 delegates, and three have more than 400. In that situation, no one would be able to lay claim to the mantle of presumptive nominee. The convention would eventually deadlock, and an outside candidate could emerge.

The Bush family secret agenda has been a subliminal theme for months with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie as the favored proxy and pitchman. But at CPAC it broke through to the surface: Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, says that Republican turmoil might lead to a brokered convention in which Jeb Bush would emerge as a “possible alternative” party nominee.  (Cardenas is already walking back his comments and his speech is disappearing from the Internet… but the cat is out of the bag.) It made Drudge this past weekend.

This would not be without its difficulties. We’ve seen the problem with sudden, late entrants before. The nominee would have to be able to put together a platform, a fundraising organization, prepare for debates, select a running mate, and hit the campaign trail, all in a manner of weeks.

And the candidate would not be fully vetted. There might be some skeleton in his closet, or his family’s. One wing of the party might not be satisfied. Chris Christie’s name is frequently mentioned, but he believes in climate change and favors civil unions. How will the religious right react when that is in the spotlight? Mitch Daniels may bore Tea Partiers looking for a fighter, and his past as Bush’s budget director is a black mark waiting to be exploited by his opponent. Jeb Bush is a Bush. And so forth. And then there are the the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives… a ticket of the Western states, a Palin/Perry ticket ticket from Alaska and Texas. Now wouldn’t that be interested?

Conservatism is at the shore of a new awakening but is afraid to cross the river. It goes back to Gov. Rick Perry’s Texas primary race. From Quigley’s Pundits Blog of Jan. 21, 2010: “The Austin Statesman reported that former President George H.W. Bush will endorse U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary for governor in her race against Rick Perry. Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Margaret Spellings and Karen Hughes [W.’s agent] also support Hutchison … But Sarah Palin supports Rick Perry and will appear with him at a rally on Super Bowl Sunday. Does one Sarah Palin equal a Bush, a Rove, a Spellings and a Hughes? In Texas, I believe it does.”  …Bernie Quigley

Perry won in a landslide. But why would the Bush establishment pull out all the stops to support Hutchison, who was sure to lose? Because they saw a new conservative movement building with Perry and Palin and were determined early on to stamp it out. They still are.
Bush/Christie or Christie/Bush as “establishment” representation is bound to bring muffled chuckles (“Hey Abbott!!!”) and Obama would win in a landslide. But Bush/Christie vs. Sarah Palin/Rick Perry positions coming head to head at the Republican Convention would pit the storied worlds of Dexter and Paulie Walnuts; the most notoriously corrupt, burned-out, busted-up, used-up, dangerous, underwater and broke Eastern states, against the new, independent, states-oriented, freedom-seeking constitutional conservatives like Palin of the Western states, Texas and Alaska. Now that would be interesting.

The path to this outcome is still a very narrow, precarious one. But for the first time, I can see it.  A Jeb Bush/Christy fight against Palin/Perry with maybe even a Romney/Santorum or Romney/Rand Paul option still sitting out there… or a Palin/Santorum option?  Can you see it? I am beginning to!

h/t to Real Clear Politics and The Hill’s Pundit’s Blog

Related Reading:

The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs - and Who Will Take It

The Road to the White House 2012