~~ Red-state Democrats are being asked to risk their seats ~~
Millions of Americans watched President Barack Obama's speech last night to a joint session of Congress. Much of it was familiar, having been delivered in at least 111 speeches, town halls, radio addresses and other appearances on health care. But his most revealing remarks on the topic came on Monday, at a Labor Day union picnic in Cincinnati.
There Mr. Obama accused critics of his health reforms of spreading "lies" and said opponents want "to do nothing." These false charges do not reveal a spirit of bipartisanship nor do they create a foundation for dialogue. It is more like what you'd say if you are planning to jam through a bill without compromise. Which is exactly what Mr. Obama is about to attempt.
Team Obama is essentially asking congressional Democrats to take a huge gamble. The White House is arguing that ramming through a controversial bill is safer for Democrats than not passing anything. This is based on the false premise that the death of HillaryCare is what doomed Democrats in 1994. Mr. Obama told a reporter in July that the defeat of HillaryCare "Helped [Republicans] regain the House." Former President Bill Clinton echoed that thought recently by saying "doing nothing" today is "the worst thing we can do for the Democrats."
Actually, attempting to pass HillaryCare is what brought down the party. Voters rejected a massively complicated, hugely expensive government takeover of health care and the Democrats who pushed it.
In reality, it is riskier to be at odds with where Americans are than just standing by as an unpopular proposal goes down. The problem for Democrats is they are scaring voters by proposing a takeover of health care that spends too much money, creates too much debt, gives Washington too much power, and takes too much decision-making away from doctors and patients.
The political risk for Democrats is clearest among seniors. A late July Gallup poll showed they were the age group least likely to believe health-care reform would improve medical care. Seniors are coming out strongly against Mr. Obama's health-care plan even though they're already covered by government care. Perhaps it's because, as a White House fact sheet makes clear, he wants to pay for his plan's $948 billion cost over the next 10 years by cutting some $622 billion from Medicare and Medicaid.
The latest Pew poll (August 20-27) found that 30% of seniors supported health-care reform while 54% were opposed. In July, Pew showed 29% in favor and 48% opposed. The same August Pew poll shows Republicans gaining 12 points among seniors on the generic ballot, compared to where they stood in the 2006 congressional elections. The generic ballot among seniors then was at 50% Democrat, 39% Republican. Today, it's 51% Republican and 43% Democrat.
This matters because seniors make up a disproportionate share of the off-year vote. CNN exit polls showed that they were roughly 16% of eligible voters in 2008, but 29% of the turnout in 2006. The generic ballot among seniors in 1994 was 45% Republican and 43% Democrat.
These numbers should worry red-state Democratic senators and the 70 Democratic congressmen whose districts were carried by John McCain or George W. Bush. The people back home are likely to punish Democrats if they vote for ObamaCare.
Already, many of them are drawing fire for having toed the party line on a stimulus package that's likely to celebrate its first anniversary with unemployment near 10%. They're also likely to be blasted for supporting a budget that doubles the national debt in five years, a new energy tax in the form of cap and trade, and a host of other liberal policies that voters did not expect from a candidate who ran as a centrist.
Until Ted Kennedy's vacant Massachusetts Senate seat is filled and there is confidence West Virginia's Robert Byrd is well enough to show up for a vote, there simply aren't 60 Senate Democrats to invoke cloture. That means Republicans will have considerable procedural sway, even if the White House isn't interested in giving them a real role by taking out a clean sheet of paper and starting over.
Given the Senate situation, do vulnerable House Democrats really want to go first in voting for ObamaCare? They've already done that by slamming through cap and trade, which is now stalled in the Senate. How much political capital will Speaker Nancy Pelosi have to spend to pass an increasingly unpopular health-care measure?
The danger for vulnerable Democrats is they have a president who is losing popularity while championing an unpopular proposal. The wise course would be to push for more time to figure out the best consensus policy and for more bipartisanship in crafting any solution.
Congressional Democrats will be under enormous pressure to stand with Mr. Obama. But the prospect of their own political future may yet concentrate many Democratic minds in Congress.
By Mr. Rove - the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush. – Source WSJ
DEMOCRATS LOSING SENIORS
Nowhere is the fallout from Obama's healthcare proposals more evident than among the elderly, and nothing is more dangerous permanently for the Democratic Party than their increasing disaffection.
A Wall Street Journal poll taken last week reflects a gain by Republicans in party identification, closing the gap from 40-33 in April in favor of the Democrats to a Democratic margin of only 35-34. The data reflects that one-third of this six-point closure of the partisan gap comes from a major shift among the elderly -- the only demographic group to have moved dramatically.
In April, the elderly broke evenly on their party identification, with 37 percent supporting each political party. Now the Republicans hold a lead, at 46-33. This 13-point closure among the 14 percent of the vote that is cast by those over 65 represents two of the six points of closure nationally.
No other group changed nearly as much. Neither liberals nor minorities nor any other age group moved nearly as dramatically as did the elderly. The Journal's pollsters noted that "perhaps the most striking movement is with senior citizens."
The Democratic Party, led by Obama, is systematically converting the elderly vote into a Republican bastion. The work of FDR in passing Social Security in 1937 and of LBJ in enacting Medicare in 1965 is being undone by the president's healthcare program. The elderly see his proposals for what they are: a massive redistribution of healthcare away from the elderly and toward a population that is younger, healthier and richer but happens, at the moment, to lack insurance. (Remember that the uninsured are, by definition, not elderly, not young and not in poverty -- and if they are, they are currently eligible for Medicare, Medicaid or SCHIP and do not need the Obama program.) The elderly see the $500 billion projected cut in Medicare through the same lens as they viewed Gingrich's efforts to slice the growth in the program in the mid-1990s.
When the president addresses Congress and the nation on Wednesday night, he will likely indicate a willingness to compromise on aspects of his program. He might attenuate his support of the public option for insurance companies and could soften other aspects of his proposal as it is embodied in the House bill.
But the fundamental equation will not change: He is cutting Medicare spending and using the money to subsidize coverage of those who are now uninsured but cannot afford to pay full premiums. It is this equation that has the elderly up in arms.
And our seniors correctly understand that you cannot extend full health benefits to some portion of the 50 million who live here and lack insurance without causing rationing of existing health services unless you expand the number of doctors and nurses and the amount of medical equipment.
When President Harry Truman first proposed compulsory health insurance in 1949, he coupled his proposal with a big increase in federal aid to medical education. He grasped the fundamental reality that you cannot expand coverage without expanding the number of people who provide the service -- unless you are prepared to resort to wholesale rationing.
If Democratic senators and congressmen believe that the elderly will recover from their Republican tendencies by Election Day 2010 -- or even by 2012 or 2014 -- they misjudge their senior constituents. The elderly are the group most dependent on government services, and they follow politics with an attention that only the needy can give.
They will not forget if the Democrats push through cuts in Medicare and then ask for their support in the next election. Their memories are long and they turn out in huge numbers. Until now, these traits have worked to the advantage of the Democrats. Now they are increasingly likely to deliver Congress and the White House to the Republicans.
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Posted: Daily Thought Pad – Cross-Posted: Knowledge Creates Power
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