Originally posted on September 13, 2011
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ -- Rick Perry and Herman Cain continue to generate the most intensely positive favorable ratings from Republicans familiar with them in Gallup Daily tracking conducted over the past two weeks -- prior to Monday night's CNN/Tea Party Republican presidential debate in Florida. Perry's Positive Intensity Score of 24 is holding near the upper boundary of his scores since he entered the race, similar to the 25 recorded in the prior two weeks. Cain's 22, however, is on the low end of his recent scores, and down five percentage points since late August.
Mitt Romney is the only announced candidate whose Positive Intensity Score has improved significantly in recent weeks. His current 16 is up from 11 in late August and is his highest rating since mid-July, thus narrowing the gap with Perry. Rudy Giuliani, who has yet to decide if he will run, still edges out Romney with an 18.
Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann have seen significant declines in their Positive Intensity Scores since late August. Palin, who has also not decided whether to run, is down six points, from 16 to 10, and Bachmann is down three points, from 13 to 10. Both women are now at new lows for the year, with Bachmann's score cut in half since early August.
Newt Gingrich's score remains slightly better than the low single digits he registered for most of the summer, but shows no signs of recovering to the mid-teens, where he was when he entered the race earlier this year. Ron Paul's 7 score is consistent with his readings since early June.
Gallup computes Positive Intensity Scores by subtracting the percentage of Republicans with highly unfavorable views of each candidate from the percentage with highly favorable views, based on those who say they have heard of the candidate. The results are reported on the basis of continuous two-week rolling averages. The Aug. 29-Sept. 11 field period for the latest results includes four days of interviewing after the Sept. 7 Republican presidential debate held at the Ronald Reagan Library.
Palin and Giuliani Remain the Biggest Names
Despite missing out on the media attention brought by participation in candidate debates like those recently held in Tampa and Simi Valley, Palin and Giuliani remain the most well-known of the 10 possible Republican presidential candidates Gallup tracks. Ninety-seven percent of Republicans nationwide say they are familiar with Palin and 89% with Giuliani.
With roughly 84% to 86% name recognition among Republicans, Gingrich, Romney, and Bachmann all now approach the high recognition Giuliani enjoys, while Paul is not far behind with 81%. Perry still lags on this measure, recognized by 75%, but that is after an early August surge in recognition from his initial 55% reading. Perry is well ahead of Rick Santorum (54%), Herman Cain (48%), and Jon Huntsman (46%).
Bottom Line
With just under five months remaining before Republican primary voters start casting ballots for the 2012 Republican nomination, Perry continues to generate more positive intensity from Republicans who know him than any other announced or potential candidate Gallup tracks. This is particularly notable because Perry has managed to maintain a strong Positive Intensity Score as his recognition among Republicans has expanded from 55% in July to 75% today. Romney, however, remains better known, and has recently seen his sagging Positive Intensity Score rebound, although he still lags significantly behind Perry on this measure.
The news is not as good for Bachmann, who has lost much of the passionate support she generated as recently as early August. Positive intensity for Palin among national Republicans has also slipped to a new low for the year.
Republicans' views of Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Huntsman all seem to be in a holding pattern at levels seemingly keeping these men out of serious contention for the nomination. Huntsman does particularly poorly in Republicans' eyes, and is the only candidate tracked whose Positive Intensity Score is a net negative, meaning that more Republicans who know him have a strongly unfavorable opinion than have a strongly favorable opinion.
Cain continues to be an anomaly, scoring high in positive intensity among those who know him, yet unable to push his recognition above the 50% level, and scoring low in trial-heat ballot measures.
With three more debates between now and mid-October, all of the candidates will have an opportunity to change their images among Republicans. They all certainly tried to advance their positions in the recent debates, and the extent to which they were successful should be evident in Gallup's Sept. 5-18 positive intensity update.
Track every angle of the presidential race on Gallup.com's Election 2012 page.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking Aug. 29-Sept. 11, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period (with no interviewing on Labor Day, Sep. 5), each candidate was rated by a minimum of 1,400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. For the Positive Intensity Score for each candidate, the maximum margin of sampling error varies depending on the size of the group recognizing the candidate.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Source: www.gallup.com.
Herman Cain's 9 9 9 plan
I haven't really decided who I'm voting for in the primaries. I know, I'm from Texas, so it's supposed to be either Rick Perry or Ron Paul, right? Well, I'm afraid of all the Ron Paul Zombies, even though I agree with about 80% of what Ron Paul says. I don't think I like his international ideas. I'm not sure how I feel about Rick Perry yet. I think the only way I'd vote for either of these is if they won the Republican nomination. Anyone is better than Obama, but I said that 3 years ago. Even if Rick Perry turns out to be a RINO, he can't do more damage than Obama has done in the past couple or more years.
I am really leaning toward Herman Cain. Yes, I know, I'm a white, conservative Republican, I'm supposed to be racist. And I'm not like a liberal who is voting for the black man to make myself feel good or prove I'm not a racist. If Herman Cain won as President, we'd really have our first Black President. Obama is half black. We'd also have a patriot instead of a Marxist.
But, anyway, I just heard Herman Cain discuss his 9 9 9 plan, and I like it. I wanted to tell you why. First, here's the plan: From his article found at http://hermancaincommentary.blogspot.com/2011/08/mr-president-youre-fired-but-if-you.html
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A 9% business flat tax. Gross income less all investments, all purchases from other businesses, and all dividends paid to shareholders.
A 9% individual income flat tax. Gross income less charitable deductions.
A 9% national sales tax. This significantly expands the tax base, which helps everyone.
This plan has the following advantages:
It is fair, revenue-neutral, transparent and efficient.
It puts zero tax on capital gains and repatriated profits.
It replaces the payroll tax.
It will aid capital availability for small businesses.
It saves taxpayers $430 billion in annual compliance costs.
It eliminates the uncertainty holding this economy down.
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The individual income tax would lower everyone who currently pays taxes (not counting the 47% who get all their taxes back or more). It may harm those who get more back, because the only deduction would be charitable contributions. That means you don't get paid by the government just because you have 8 kids. You don't get any earned income credit because you chose to work part of the year, but not enough to actually have to file. It will emliminate the attitude of "Oh, I can get by with a part time job, because I can sit on my butt the other half and get earned income credit to make it up. You put out money, and get to take it off your taxes. We're currently in the 15% tax bracket, 25% if you would happen to count his retirement check. So, that's about $5000 now. The retirement check doesn't all count right now, but it does lower how much we get back because we have to live on it. I think the difference was something like %1700, because I forgot to add it at first. At 9% it would be between $3000 and $4800 if they counted the whole retirement check. I believe it would closer to $3500-4000,
The corporate tax is also a flat tax. Small business owners will still be basically taxed twice if they own their own business, but they'll know how much and you get deductions (even for share holders).
He doesn't say it, but the flat national sales tax on new items would catch the illegal aliens, the foreign investors, any legal visitor who buys things here. Unless that's what he meant about expanding the tax base. That's a pay as you go. If you don't want to pay the tax, buy used. I go to thrift stores a lot. There are some really nice ones. And if you consider that a charitable contribution or keep it one), the "rich" will donate more of their clothes in order to get that deduction. I got a pair of beaded capri's that still had the original tag on it ($120) for something like $5. But if he rich don't want to buy used, they have to buy new and pay 9% national sales tax. That theoretically should satisfy the liberals who don't want the rich to have nice things, or to pay more because they have more. If they aren't willing to pay the sales tax, they too are able to shop at thrift stores. It will also eliminate those like Buffett who are trying to get out of millions in taxes, while at the same time saying people just like them should pay more. You want to pay more? Either don't give charitable donation, or don't claim them. You don't have to claim deductions.
I know this sounded like a commercial for Herman Cain, but like I said, I haven't really made up my mind yet. There are points I agree with from all the candidates, it's just that this is the first simple plan I've seen.
What I think they should all agree on, is that whoever wins the nomination (and they all agree to stay in until all primaries are done), appoints all the other nominees into the cabinet. We could use people like all those running (except Huntsman, I don't believe at all he's conservative). I'm sure they could find some small cabinet appointment for him, though.
Source: America’s Voice Corps
Palin and Bachmann are at poll lows right now, but both could come back! This upcoming debate is an important one and time is growing near for the holdouts to decide!!
Poll Grounds Obama Losing Ground to Republicans - Palin within 5 points of Obama
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