New York buildings are reflected in the window of a Capital One bank office window. The Treasury Department said Tuesday it will allow 10 of the nation's largest banks to repay $68 billion in government bailout money. (AP File)
Ten of the nation’s biggest financial companies got a green light Tuesday to return $68 billion in federal bailout money — freeing the banks from limits on executive pay and leaving the government with a small gain on the rescue cash.
While the paybacks could be a signal that the banking industry is stabilizing, analysts say it is far from a clean bill of health, and some said it was too soon to let the banks give back the money.
Presidential spokesman Robert Gibbs said the returned money would go “back into general revenue” and could even be used to bail out banks again. (And this seems to be the plan… Many banks have wanted to repay stimulus money before but were not allowed because they weren’t ready… per the administration. But now that people are starting to get fed up and money sources are drying up, they need the money, they will take the pay back and do it all again.
Still, the government has collected $1.8 billion from dividends on shares of preferred stock it received in exchange for bailout money, he said. And the government still holds warrants to buy shares of bank stock at cut-rate prices in the future.
The $68 billion in paybacks would be the largest since the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program took effect eight months ago at the peak of the financial crisis. Specifically, the money comes from a $250 billion slice of the $700 billion bailout package.
Other chunks of the $700 billion will be harder, if not impossible, to recover. Some of it, such as $70 billion funneled to failed insurer American International Group Inc., ended up in the pockets of healthier banks that did deals with AIG.
And even the banks getting out from under the TARP still rely on government support, including debt guarantees from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and credit lines from the Federal Reserve.
The banks chafed under restrictions on executive pay imposed by the government for banks that took bailout cash, arguing they were losing top talent to other firms. The administration is expected to roll out new executive pay rules Wednesday that would apply to banks that still have TARP money.
“It’s our obvious hope that additional money is not going to have to be used to stabilize banks,” Gibbs said. “I certainly wouldn’t rule it out.”
Indeed, banking experts stressed that the payments do not signal an end to the financial crisis. In fact, they say, most banks approved to pay the money back never needed it in the first place.
And three major banks that have not been approved by the government to pay the money back — Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. — could need federal help for years to come.
“When a troubled bank is capable of repaying, that would be significant,” said Barry Ritholtz, head of the financial research firm FusionIQ. “But we’re not going to see that anytime soon because they can’t afford it.”
Among the banks approved to pay back their bailout cash are eight that passed the government “stress test” earlier this year: JPMorgan Chase & Co., American Express Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., U.S. Bancorp, Capital One Financial Corp., Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp. and BB&T Corp.
Those banks had to show they could raise private capital without federal guarantees before getting permission to pay back TARP money.
Morgan Stanley did not pass the test, but got approval to return its bailout money after quickly raising enough capital. And Northern Trust Corp. did not undergo the “stress test” but said it also had received permission to repay its bailout money.
President Barack Obama welcomed the news but said: “This is not a sign that our troubles are over — far from it.”
Indeed, the repayments carry risk. Some say it could create a banking system of winners and losers, with weaker banks stuck with federal restrictions and finding it harder to compete for customers and talent against rivals that operate more freely.
Others say the repayments could conceal problems in the banking industry. Smaller banks are still saddled with billions in risky commercial real estate loans. And large banks still hold the toxic mortgage-backed assets at the heart of the financial crisis.
Paying the government back leaves banks with less protection against future losses, said Christopher Whalen, managing director of the consulting firm Institutional Risk Analytics. And with less capital on hand, they may have to scale back lending.
Other critics said it was dangerous to allow the money to be paid back before the administration overhauls the regulatory framework that governs banks.
“The credit crisis made it clear that the banks acted in irrational and greedy ways. I don’t believe that enough changes have really happened yet,” said Donald Thomas, an independent research analyst.
Adding to the concerns, a report released Tuesday by the congressional panel overseeing the bailout said the hypothetical scenarios used in the “stress tests” might have been too rosy.
That raises the troubling possibility that even raising enough capital to satisfy the government won’t guarantee banks can withstand a deeper recession. And that means the banks might have to seek more federal aid.
Citi and Bank of America, two of the most troubled financial institutions, have taken $45 billion each in bailout money. Wells Fargo said it has not asked for permission to pay back $25 billion in TARP money.
Banking analyst Bert Ely said it could be years before those banks disentangle themselves from the government.
More than 600 banks have received a total of almost $200 billion from the TARP, and 22 smaller banks have already paid the money back. The $1.8 billion in dividend money includes stock the government owned in these smaller banks.
Besides the preferred-stock dividends, the banks that took bailout money issued warrants that give the government the right to buy bank stock at a fixed price later. Bank stocks have been battered but are expected to rise as the economy recovers, so the warrants could deliver substantial profits to taxpayers.
Or the government could sell the warrants back to the banks “at fair market value,” the Treasury Department said — presumably also locking in profits for the taxpayers.
Testifying before a Senate panel, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the value of the warrants for banks permitted to repay TARP funds are in the “several billion dollar range.”
But it sounds like Secretary Geithner’s understanding might not always be right on…~ Geithner said, after his visit to China that “the Chinese have justifiable confidence in our economy”. Yet other reports, including from Illinois Congressman Kirk, say that China is very uneasy and concerned about the U.S. economy. A telling moment was when a round of laughter broke out as Tim Geithner was speaking in China and said “your investments are secure”; the rudeness of laughing at someone virtually never happens in China. M~
By: Stevenson Jacobs and Daniel Wagner - Associated Press
06/09/09 7:44 PM EDT
This week we will be selling treasury bonds (T-bills). The question is who will buy them… Who wants to luck up their money our future for 30-years? Who buys those bills could make a huge difference in all our lives!
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