Lighten Up Eeyore, The Pollsters Don't Even Agree With Each Other

TPN: Sadly, this obsession over what has to be the most misunderstood science in all of American life has become a ritual, with a life all its own. So, now the depression is full bore, and even people on the Republican side are beginning to show signs of depression, despite all of our solid promises to ourselves and each other that this year, we would not fall for this lunacy, no matter what. If you really believe that the worst President in our Nation's history, the man who's policy of appeasement has seen a quarter of our embassies around the world set ablaze, the man who's domestic policies have shut down all domestic energy production on federal lands, the man who's economic policies have made him the first President since Herbert Hoover to see less Americans working after a full term in office than on the day he was sworn into office, will win the election by 8 to 10 points, then I happen to be in possession of the Brooklyn Bridge, and would be willing to sell.

What is most perplexing to me about the devotion to the polls is this. If the polls were at all accurate, they would be very close to delivering us the same numbers. If that were the case, nobody would be logging onto the Real Clear Politics website in order to see what the daily average of all the polls had to say about the daily average of all polls where every poll should be mirroring the daily average.

Consider this also, after every election cycle, all of the polls are ranked in accuracy, and surprisingly, none of the polls being quoted anywhere by anyone are ever close to the top of that list. Rasmussen and Zogby will typically rank 1 and 2, and neither will be discussed on the evening news. We'll discuss both of these companies later, and why they get closer than the other more famous members of the polling community.

What is a better predictor of election results is history, and in that spirit, Dick Morris has an analysis that is probably much more predictive than anything you'll see in the polls. In his article, Dick Morris combines an historical perspective with the polling results to give us what I believe to be one of the best predictive analyses available

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48).

He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-46) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.

When a pollster conducts his interviews, he does not contact only the number of people reported in the headline. They will usually contact 3 to 4 times that number of people. You will also not see the actual breakdown of how people responded in the headline. What you see, his finished product, will be a weighted average based on what the pollster feels will be the demographic distribution of who will ultimately vote, in other words, his guess.

Typically, when interviews are conducted, a voting model of demographic distribution exists before hand. A certain percentage of women, men, breakdowns by age, race, religion, party affiliation, etc. Then percentages of how each demographic would vote is the information gleaned from the polling interviews. For instance, pretty much all of the pollsters agree today that Barack Obama would win 85% of the democrats who voted, and Mitt Romney would likely garner 86% of the Republicans who voted. What is in dispute is how the voting demographic will break down. How many 18 to 21 year old kids this time? Four years ago, that demographic turned out huge for Barack Obama, now that 50% of them have remained unemployed for the entirety of Barack Obama's term in office, and they are 4 years older, will they turn out in the same force? Will today's crop of 18 to 21 year old voters vote in similar fashion as their counterparts from 4 years ago? Typically, this demographic has an abhorrent track record when it comes to voting.
What you have at the end of the day is this. Polls are only going to be as accurate as their predictions as to what the demographic make up of the actual voting sample turns out to be. What PPP, Marist, Quinipiac, USA Today, are telling us with their samples is that the voting make up this year will look exactly as the make up looked in 2008. In 2008, Goerge W. Bush was despised almost universally, albeit unjustly, and the Democrats in our country were hyped up as never before for their man Barack Obama. He was viewed as somewhat of a messianic figure during the height of the hopety change fervor that had gripped the nation's dopes. My fellow citizens were chanting, in a scene that came straight out of 1930's Germany. What these polls are telling us, is that America is still in that mood today.

Think about this for one moment. Compare the size of the crowds traveling to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Consider the difference in size of the Tea Party crowds to the faked inhabited tents of the Occupests. Twice since the convention, and once during it, Barack Obama was forced to change venues to something smaller due to a lack of attendance.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

First off, Rasmussen asks the question up front, do you plan on voting. This alone gives his poll an accuracy that the others lack. Registered voter polls include a bias towards the demographics who typically do not vote. Next, Rasmussen uses a different interview process to gain some understanding of what this year's model will actually resemble, without relying on data from 4 years ago. One of the things Rasmussen has found, through polling independent of the question of who will we be voting for, is that people who self identify as Republican is at an all time high. People who self identify as Democrat is at a near historic low. This does not exactly lead one to the conclusion that 2008's record turnout of every Democrat demographic feels that same enthusiasm today, and indeed feels it to an even greater degree.

In the case of Zogby this year, kudos for changing methodology to reflect changes in the level of technology available to citizens. My fear is that he does not yet have a handle of how to accurately utilize his new methodology. Zogby has been extremely quiet this election cycle, and now we all know why. Rather than conducting phone interviews, John Zogby and his company conducted on line interviews. I have seen far too many of these types of polls skewed purposefully, not by the polling companies, but by spammers with an agenda finding holes in the programming sufficient to deliver a result desired. the perfect examples of this were highlighted in 2008, when any online poll of the Republican Primary race showed Ron Paul with support ranging from 70% to 80% of any sample, while he consistently garnered only 2% of the actual vote. I am not saying that Zogby has not found a way to combat this, but his only poll to date this year seems to be somewhat of an outlier, even when compared to the others. I wish John Zogby the best in getting a handle on his new methodology, if successful, it should be a quantum leap in the art.

At this point during the election of 1980, Jimmy Carter supposedly had an 8 point lead over Ronald Reagan. I realize that Mitt Romney is no Ronald Reagan, but neither is Barack Obama a Jimmy Carter. I am not one of those people who will jump up and down to swear that this is some nefarious plot on the part of all things liberal. I just believe the pollsters to be dead wrong, and that would not make the first time either. In 2004, NBC announced at about noon on election day that our 44th President would be John Kerry, based on their exit polls, which had the benefit of an accurate voting sample.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.

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The Reality of 2012 Voter Turnout: The White Voter

Romney Double Digit Lead?

‘Unskewed’ polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

Race beginning to look a lot like 1980? What might Ronald Reagan’s victory path mean?

Calling All Concerned Americans to Stand-Up

Does Obama expect to lose? – Secret retirement plans

A Must Watch Before Voting…

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Technorati Tags: polls,pollsters,Dick Morris,Election 2012,2012 Election,Mitt Romney in 2012,Romney-Ryan,smoke and mirrors,Obamaland,politics,tea party,Rasmussen Poll,Zogby Poll,skewed polls,unskewed polls,weighted polls

At Least We Can Agree On Something!

Obama's 47 Percent Approval Lowest of Any President at This Point

President Obama's job approval rating has fallen to 47 percent in the latest Gallup poll, the lowest ever recorded for any president at this point in his term.

Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford and even Richard Nixon all had higher approval ratings 10-and-a-half months into their presidencies. Obama's immediate predecessor, President George W. Bush, had an approval rating of 86 percent, or 39 points higher than Obama at this stage. Bush's support came shortly after he launched the war in Afghanistan in response to the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said he doesn't "put a lot of stock" in the survey by Gallup, which has conducted presidential approval polls since 1938, longer than any other organization.

"If I was a heart patient and Gallup was my EKG, I'd visit my doctor," Gibbs said in response to questions from Fox. "I'm sure a six-year-old with a Crayon could do something not unlike that. I don't put a lot of stake in, never have, in the EKG that is daily Gallup trend. I don't pay a lot of attention to the meaninglessness of it."

Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport responded: "Gibbs said that if Gallup were his EKG, he would visit his doctor. Well, I think the doctor might ask him what's going on in his life that would cause his EKG to be fluctuating so much. There is, in fact, a lot going on at the moment -- the health care bill, the jobs summit, the Copenhagen climate conference and Afghanistan."

The new low comes as Obama struggles to overhaul the nation's health care system and escalates America's involvement in the Afghanistan war. He is also presiding over a deep and prolonged recession, with unemployment at 10 percent.

"There's no doubt Obama's 47 percent is mainly a result of the continuing bad economy," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "But there is also a growing concern about government spending and debt, and a sense that Obama is trying to do too much, too soon."

He added: "President Obama has reason to be concerned about his ratings. Even in tough times, presidents have usually been able to stay above the critical 50 percent mark in the first year, when the public is most inclined to give the new incumbent the benefit of the doubt."

Obama officials have not always shown disdain for Gallup. During last year's presidential campaign, Obama adviser David Plouffe, trumpeted "the latest Gallup poll" to reporters because it showed that 53 percent of Americans did not find Obama Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, "trustworthy."

When Gallup began taking presidential approval polls 71 years ago, Franklin Roosevelt had been president for more than five years. During his remaining time in office, his job approval rating never fell below 48 percent.

The next 11 presidents, both Democrats and Republicans, all had higher job approval ratings than Obama at this stage of their tenure. Their ratings were:

-- George W. Bush, 86 percent
-- Bill Clinton, 52 percent
-- George H.W. Bush, 71 percent
-- Ronald Reagan, 49 percent
-- Jimmy Carter, 57 percent
-- Gerald Ford, 52 percent
-- Richard Nixon, 59 percent
-- Lyndon Johnson, 74 percent
-- John Kennedy, 77 percent
-- Dwight Eisenhower, 69 percent
-- Harry Truman, 49 percent

The poll is an average of a three-day tracking of 1,529 adults taken Dec. 4-6. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

By Bill Sammon - - FOXNews.com

Latest polls show Obama’s approval at below 50% (varying between 46 and 50% this week); number of people who identify themselves as Conservatives as between 43% and 51%, depending on poll and wording of question, and the number of people who identify themselves as Liberals only 19%.

REVEREND JACKSON SLAMS OBAMA

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT (From Rush Limbaugh)

RUSH: The Reverend Jackson is not happy about this. Last night on PBS on the Tavis Smiley show, Tavis Smiley talked to the Monochrome Coalition chairman and whatever else he is, the Reverend Jackson, and the question: "Some think the blame Bush rhetoric no longer applies that Obama used successfully in the campaign."
JACKSON: He essentially owns more and more. When Bush left office there were 30,000 troops in Afghanistan. We're now going to a hundred thousand, so we kind of own the Afghanistan mission. We bailed out the banks. We kind of own a plan now where you have more foreclosures than you do have modifications. We're losing jobs by the droves. Unemployment levels are disastrously high. We are the canary in the mine. We're on the front side of its pain and the backside of its prosperity. Urban America is black, but Appalachia basically is white. We must not be seen as marginal America.

RUSH: I'll tell you what's going on here with this. The Reverend Jackson -- and I got two more stories in the stack today about how black unemployment is through the roof, black unemployment is terrible, the black frame of mind is terrible, they're depressed, Obama is not doing anything for them. How is that Hoax and Change working for you? They're all livid. I mean they thought there was going to be an exact 180 degree economic reversal and it's done nothing but get bad for everybody, but they're especially upset about it because they look at him as one of them and now they feel abandoned. I'm sure Tiger Woods' choice of females is not helping 'em out with their attitudes there, either. Folks, about that, I got a great piece to share with you from Lisa Schiffren at the AmericanThinker.com on the parallels between Tiger Woods and Barack Obama. The theme is that both are the result of lies, falsely crafted images that are in no way representative of who they really are. I'll get to that in a mere moment.

One more sound bite here from Reverend Jackson. Oh, and there's total disarray over in Copenhagen, something called the Danish texts. Poor nations have found out they're going to get screwed with the climate talks over there. Oh, yeah, it's big. And then Dingy Harry is out there with his slavery comment. I don't know, folks. I have faith in all things good, and this stuff just cannot triumph, at the end of the day it just won't. This is utter disaster. Anyway, back to the Reverend Jackson, Tavis Smiley said, "How do black leaders, how do black folk, how do black people make that case to the president? In other words, how do you push back on him respectfully when you know that black folk in the 90th percentile love this president?"

JACKSON: They also love to keep their houses and they also love their jobs. So the issue is about policy. It's not about our appreciation of the impact of this presidency. We found through the attorney generals that these major banks profiled blacks and Latinos. They circumvented community reinvestment laws. As opposed to getting a bailout, they should be facing the courts for breaking the law. On the black and brown side is where the water came in the boat. But the water didn't stop. It kept on coming, the water kept coming across. A rising tide will not lift those boats stuck at the bottom that have holes in them.

RUSH: So there's trouble in paradise out there. The Reverend Jackson, his anger is pretty muted here but he's pretty mad. (interruption) What is it, Snerdley? What is it? Hm-hm. Hm-hm. Well, no, he said it's about skin color thing, but, look, the bottom line is, all of this was supposed to have vanished. We were supposed to have a postracial country. Look at the divisions that have sprung up. Look at the partisanship, the divide has gotten wider. The Reverend Jackson is not happy at all, and all of it was so predictable. Look, I'm a little long. I gotta take a quick break and we'll come back, we have more samples of Obama's Hoax and Change speech at Brookings today plus a damn good Stack of Stuff to get through, so sit tight. We'll be right back.

END TRANSCRIPT

Read the Background Material...

• UK Guardian: Copenhagen Climate Summit in Disarray After 'Danish Text' Leak

Thanks, Rush!!

Black Caucus War Against Obama

A civil war is breaking out within the left of the Democratic Party pitting the Congressional Black Caucus against the first African-American president.

The battle began when California Congresswoman Maxine Waters complained publicly about the Administration’s failure to do more to help minority-owned businesses in the current recession. (Translation: In the new Stimulus of “Jobs” Bill making its way through Congress, they want a larger take). It continued yesterday when ten members of the Black Caucus refused to participate in a meeting of the House Banking Committee which was considering the bill to restructure financial regulations forcing Chairman Barney Frank to push the bill through by the uncomfortable margin of only 31-27.

The latest shot in the battle was fired by Homeland Security Chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss) a card carrying regular of the Black Caucus. Faced with the need to investigate the gate crashing at the White House during the recent state dinner for India, he chose to embarrass the Administration by subpoenaing White House Social Secretary Desiree Rogers rather than quietly negotiating for her appearance.

That Thompson’s action was a deliberate slap in Obama’s face is obvious (even though the media has missed it). Since when does a liberal Democratic committee chairman embarrass a liberal Democratic president by forcing a liberal Democratic Social Secretary (from Chicago no less) to resist a subpoena to appear at a hearing? Since he wanted to send a message to Obama and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel that the Black Caucus did not like being taken for granted.

The merits of the controversy are obvious. What possible reason would a Social Secretary, for goodness sakes, have for the assertion of executive privilege that is usually reserved for issues of national security? Obviously, none. But Thompson chose his target well. He struck at the social core of the Chicago Mafia that runs the White House, probably striking within the Obama family as well.

You don’t do that to a president of your own party, your own ideology, and even your own race unless you want to make a point.

The friction between the Black Caucus and Obama escalated when Waters berated the Administration for failing to rework a business loan from Goldman Sachs to the Inner City Broadcasting Corporation. Inner City is run by Pierre Sutton, son of Percy Sutton, the long time media giant in the African-American community. Two weeks after she raised the issue in a meeting with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Emanuel, Goldman saw the light and restructured the loan.

Coming on top of liberal angst with the decision by the “peace” president to escalate the war in Afghanistan, this split with the black caucus comes at an awkward time.

But you pay a price when you mess with the African American Caucus and the Suttons. The Obama Administration is feeling it. It’s kind of fun to watch.

Source: Front Page

And Take Heart… Palin now as popular as Obama

Barack Obama has sunk to a new low in Gallup's job approval numbers. The polling firm reported Monday that Obama's approval rating had dropped to 47% in their rolling three day average.

Perhaps equally important, Gallup says 46% of the people they asked disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president.
Those numbers are almost identical to favorable/unfavorable numbers for Sarah Palin in a new CNN poll , which showed the former Alaska governor at 46% favorable and 46% unfavorable.

Given the Obamedia's unparalleled trashing of Palin and their sycophantic support of the One, these new numbers--even if temporary--bespeak two important points: the waning influence of the legacy media, and the appeal that Palin has to a substantial portion of the public.

By: William Tate – American Thinker
Page Printed from: (Shout Out to Babs from As.A.Mom) http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/12/palin_now_as_popular_as... at December 08, 2009 - 04:48:50 PM EST

And the good thing is that Palin’s numbers are going up while Obama’s numbers are going down…

Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove of Obama - Updated

Rasmussen's latest poll shows Fifty-two percent (52%) of likely voters now disapprove of Obama.

Only 42% favor President Obama and the Congressional Democrat's health care reform plan while 53% are opposed. Other data shows that 51% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies.

Source: Bluegrass Pundit

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-seven percent (37%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends).

Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is feeling the heat of the health care debate. He now trails Republican Pat Toomey by double digits in an early look at the potential 2010 race. Two months ago, Specter led by double digits. Most Pennsylvania voters oppose the Congressional health care reform effort. Also, Specter’s lead is shrinking in his Democratic Primary match-up with Congressman Joe Sestak.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available onTwitter.

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet recorded. The President’s ratings first fell below 50% just a few weeks ago on July 25. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans disapprove along with 65% of those not affiliated with either party. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Democrats offer their approval. Most women (51%) offer their approval while most men (56%) disapprove. For more measures of the President's performance, see Obama By the Numbers and recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

Later today, Rasmussen Reports will release new data on which party voters trust when it comes to health care. Premium Members can get an advance look at the data.

(More Below)

Nationally, support for the health care reform plan proposed by President Obamaand congressional Democrats has fallen to a new low. Just 42% favor the plan while 53% are opposed. Other data shows that 51% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Forty-one percent (41%) fear the insurance companies more. Overall, 32% favor a single-payer health care systemfor the U.S. while 57% are opposed.

Sixty-six percent (66%) oppose Mexican trucks on U.S. highways while just 19% favor lifting that ban. Most oppose Canada’s request to lift the Buy American provision for projects funded by the stimulus package.

In the Virginia Governor’s race, Republican Bob McDonnell has opened a nine-point advantage over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds. In New Jersey’s race for Governor, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine trails by double digits. Republicans maintains a modest lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot.

If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about Scott's favorite placeon earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. Other factors are also important to consider when comparing Job Approval ratings from different polling firms.

(More Below)

Internationally, North Korea and Iran rank one and two on the U.S. enemies list.At the other extreme, Canada and Great Britain lead a list of seven countries that most Americans consider allies.

A Fordham University professor has rated the national pollsters on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results for your review.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past four years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 38.4% Democrats, 32.7% Republicans, and 28.9% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numberspage. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

Source: Rassmussen Polls

OBAMA'S ISSUES CRUMBLING

At last, there is convincing evidence that Obama's poll numbers may be descending to earth. While his approval remains high -- and his personal favorability is even higher -- the underlying numbers suggest that a decline may be in the offing. Even as he stands on his pedestal, the numbers under his feet are crumbling.

According to a Rasmussen poll, more voters now trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the economy, by a margin of 45-39. Scott Rasmussen notes that "this is the first time in over two years of polling that the GOP has held the advantage on this issue." Last month, he had the Democrats holding a one-point lead, but they lost it in June's polling.

And the Democratic leads over Republicans on their core issues are also dropping. Particularly interesting is the Democratic decline over healthcare, from an 18-point lead in May to only 10 points now.

A Gallup poll also confirms that the president's personal ratings are high, but the underlying data less so. While 67 percent of voters give Obama personal favorable ratings and 61 percent approve of his job performance (Rasmussen has his job approval lower, at 55 percent), they give him much lower ratings on specific issues.

Gallup shows Obama getting only 55 percent approval on his handling of the economy (down from 59 percent in February) and finds that only 45 percent approve of his handling of federal spending while 46 percent approve of his treatment of the budget deficit.

As it becomes clearer that the deficit caused by spending has landed us in a new economic crisis, entirely of Obama's own making, his popularity and job performance are likely to drop as well.

The old recession -- that the public says was caused by Bush -- shows signs of winding down. But the new recession and/or inflation -- triggered by Obama's massive deficits -- is just now coming upon us.

If Obama refuses to cut back on his spending/stimulus plans (despite convincing evidence that Americans are not spending the money), he has three options:

a) He can raise taxes, which will trigger a deeper recession;
b) He can print money, which will trigger huge inflation;
c) He can pay more interest to borrow money, which will send the economy diving down again.

The blame for these outcomes will fall squarely on Obama's deficit and spending policies. The fact that Americans are aware of these issues, and already disapprove of Obama's performance on them, indicates that they will be increasingly receptive to blaming him for the "new" recession.

Interestingly, Obama's polling is now the exact opposite of President Clinton's in the days after Monica Lewinsky. Back then, the president's approval for handling specific issues was his forte, while his job approval remained high but his personal favorability lagged 20 points behind. Ultimately, it is a politician's performance on specific issues that determines his electability. Personal favorability withers in the face of issue differences. Obama is about to find out that you cannot rely on image to bolster your presidency when the underlying issues are crumbling.

All this data suggests that Obama might run out of steam just as he gets to his healthcare agenda. As unemployment mounts, month after month, and Obama's claims of job creation (or savings) ring hollow, it is possible that he will not have the heft to pass his radical restructuring of the healthcare system. The automaton Democratic majority may pass it anyway, but it will be a one-way ticket to oblivion if they do.

By EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS – Dick Morris.com

Posted: Knowledge Creates Power